April 30th, 2021 MLB Betting Tips

Follow @SBTSportBetting

[Get Exclusive Tips on our Patreon, Ad-Free]

We’re giving the site a facelift so I decided to do the same to the MLB System. I’ve had more success using the full system thus far and have made some adjustments accordingly.

I went through and did a system update to incorporate more of 2020 into the system. I am still using projections as the primary stat in offense and starting pitcher, but I have started to incorporate their 2021 stats into that as well.

A good example would be today’s Cubs/Reds game. Both Wade Miley and Jake Arrieta have FIP projections of 4.4+, but thus far they are at 3.5 and 3.45. Maybe they’ve figured something out, who knows? We need to incorporate that if we’re thinking of going over there. The total is set at 9.5 and with only the projections, the system says over. With the 2021 stats, it’s a lot closer to 9.5.

We now have comments open so feel free to post your tips below.

I’m feeling excited about the system. Four tips today!

All tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips:

	Pitcher	FIP	wRC+	Rank	wRC+ L14	Rank	Bullpen	Rank	BP L14	Rank	Park
NYM	Marcus Stroman	3.13	112	3	93	17	65	1	63	2
PHI	Chase Anderson	5.67	104	12	90	22	109	20	110	19	101

Chase Anderson of the Phillies projects as bad and he has been just as bad as the projections state. Walks, not many strikeouts, and homeruns allowed – he is the exact type of pitcher that we love to target. The Phillies bullpen has once again been an issue for them as well as they have already surrendered four walk-off wins. Not good.

The Mets offense is going to get better than this. They just have too much talent for it not to and today is a nice chance for that to happen. Marcus Stroman has looked excellent early and the Phillies have struggled somewhat against righties early.

I would bet this either as a full game or a 5-inning, but the best value is in laying the runs early.

Pick: Bet Mets -0.5 First 5 Innings (-115)

Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals Betting Tips:

	Pitcher	FIP	wRC+	Rank	wRC+ L14	Rank	Bullpen	Rank	BP L14	Rank	Park
MIA	Pablo Lopez	3.05	93	27	92	18	104	17	69	4
WSN	Jon Lester	5.14 (2020)	104	12	89	24	111	22	109	17	103

Jon Lester is washed. He was bad last year with a 5.16 ERA/5.14 FIP on no strikeouts and a lot of homeruns. He’s not good and the Marlins have hit lefties early.

Pablo Lopez has had a fantastic start to the season with a 2.93 ERA/3.05 FIP and a big strikeout rate. This is still small sample size territory, but the Nationals have just been bad against righties. They have just a .629 OPS in nearly 500 at-bats. That will turn around, but probably not against Lopez.

Pick: Bet Marlins -131

Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees Betting Tips:

	Pitcher	FIP	wRC+	Rank	wRC+ L14	Rank	Bullpen	Rank	BP L14	Rank	Park
DET	Tarik Skubal	6.77	94	25	74	30	135	30	106	16
NYY	Gerrit Cole	0.72	117	2	98	12	71	2	84	10	99

Let’s talk about wind! You throw a ball into the wind and it doesn’t go as far. You throw a ball with the win and suddenly you look like Patrick Mahomes. That’s how it works and it works the same way when you hit a baseball hard.

The wind in this game is off the charts with gusts of 30 MPH blowing out to center. The Yankees can hit homeruns and they have a nice match-up here to do that. I could see them hitting this over on their own. Gerrit Cole has been unhittable early, but even a pop fly could go out today. I can see him giving up some runs.

This is like a Wrigley Field in the summer game with this wind, but the total is set low because the sportsbooks respect Cole too much. Don’t be a fool. Bet on the wind, bet the over.

Pick: Bet Tigers/Yankees Over 7.5

Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers Betting Tips:

	Pitcher	FIP	wRC+	Rank	wRC+ L14	Rank	Bullpen	Rank	BP L14	Rank	Park
BOS	Nathan Eovaldi	1.94	104	12	113	3	79	3	78	6
TEX	Kohei Arihara	4.17	91	28	97	13	114	25	97	15	100

Nathan Eovaldi has been excellent in the early going with a 3.77 ERA/1.94 FIP. He’s done it by keeping his walks down and not allowing any homeruns. This is a good match-up for him as the Rangers don’t walk much and strike out a lot.

The Red Sox have continued to impress offensively early and I like the match-up with Arihara. He has been better than the projections thus far, but he’s still not lighting the world on fire. His 5.24 K/9 rate is one of the lowest among starters and I just don’t see that working out well for him here.

Pick: Bet Red Sox -157

Follow @SBTSportBetting