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MLB betting tips for April 4th, 2025.
Things are heating up at Sharp Baseball with a 12-4 record since Sunday. Today’s post is free to all members, with four bets and three player props. I’ve shared a couple of the bets below, but check out Sharp Baseball for the full post. There is one free post per week, including the daily fantasy report. If you like what you see, please consider subscribing for the daily updates.
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All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs Betting Tips:
SDP – Randy Vásquez
CHC – Shota Imanaga
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Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips:
LAD – Yoshinobu Yamamoto
PHI – Jesús Luzardo
The Dodgers can’t lose, and I don’t think Luzardo will be the one to beat them. Last season’s team was the best in the MLB against lefties, and it doesn’t look like this year is likely to be all that different.
Luzardo is projected for high walks and home runs, which played out in his first start against the Nationals. I don’t imagine it gets better against the Dodgers.
Yamamoto is a strikeout machine who doesn’t care who he’s facing. The Phillies offense is a bit more human against righties, despite their numbers thus far. Let’s just say there is a big difference between playing the Dodgers and the Nationals and Rockies.
The Dodgers bullpen has been the best in baseball thus far so I expect them to hold any lead they get early.
Dodgers Moneyline (-125)
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Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals Betting Tips:
ARI – Brandon Pfaadt
WSN – Jake Irvin
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Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:
MIA – Max Meyer
ATL – Spencer Schwellenbach
I went back and forth on this one just because of how the Braves have played thus far, but talent should win out in the end. One thing I think people overrate/underrate during good/bad stretches for a team is the quality of the opponent they play. The Braves have had the hardest schedule thus far, and they’ve faced some amazing pitchers as well.
Today, they get the Marlins which project to be one of the three worst teams in the league this season. The Braves, including the start they’ve had, are still projected to win 88 games this season by Fangraphs. There are teams that I will believe a seven-game sample of, but the Braves are not one of them.
Schwellenbach should be great here. He was great in his first start with six shutout innings, and this start is much easier. The Marlins are the second-worst projected offense in the System.
There are reasons to believe that Max Meyer could be a good starter in this league, but we’re still talking about a guy with a projected 4.38 ERA/4.36 FIP that struggled last season. He only made eleven starts last season, including four runs on the road against the Braves. I think that’s the floor today.
Braves -1.5 (-112)
