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An 0-2 record last night.
I did manage to give out a winning tip on twitter and in the comments with the over on the Angels/Rangers game yesterday. When I originally wrote the tips that line wasn’t up yet and when I saw it later, I knew I needed to bet it. Hopefully you saw that and got on it.
The Yankees/Rays game did not go over, but it wasn’t for a lack of trying. A combined 17 hits, but only four runs. Both teams left a ton of men on base.
I offhandedly mentioned that I had been expecting a Sam Gaviglio blowup that never came. Well, it came and we were on the wrong side of it.
Today is a day where the system is right on with a lot of these games. Most of the moneylines are right within the expectations and the two games that the system is crazy for (Washington and Cleveland), the sportsbooks make you pay -180 to lay -1.5 runs. No thank you.
Luckily, we have our overs.
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New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Betting Tips:
Yesterday we liked the over in this game because Blake Snell has had a historically tough time at Yankee Stadium. Well, it’s the same thing here with Marcus Stroman. He has a 5.84 ERA in eight starts with seven homeruns allowed. This Yankees offense is weakened with injuries, but they are still dangerous at home and I like them to put up some runs here.
For the Yankees, it’s Lance Lynn. He’s had some magical starts since coming to the Yankees with only one run allowed in three starts, but that’s not who he is. He has a 4.46 ERA/4.23 FIP on the year and that’s who he is. This Jays offense is coming off a series in which they really hit the ball well and I like them to continue that here.
Bet Yankees/Jays Over 8.5 Runs
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:
Brian Johnson has put up a few nice starts with a 3.95 ERA/4.23 FIP on the year. That said, the Rays hit lefties very well with a 108 wRC+ on the year and are coming off a nice win against the Yankees. I’m a big fan of their new lineup and I think they’ll do some good things in this park today.
The Rays will be bullpening this one and I’m not sure how that goes for them. They used six pitchers yesterday and could be feeling the effects. It doesn’t hurt that they are facing one of the most dangerous offenses in this league. Signs point to a 10+ run game here.
Bet Rays/Red Sox Over 9.5 Runs
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres Betting Tips:
I usually try to stay away from overs in games involving the Padres, but I have to make an exception here. For one, they’ve been absolutely killing it lately with a 117 wRC+ over the past 14 days. They go against Robbie Ray who has some of the best strikeout numbers around, but also a 4.83 ERA/4.42 FIP and a 1.53 HR/9. The walks are usually a problem for him and I like the Dads to do some work on him here.
As for their opponents, well, I always love the Diamondbacks offense. He has a 3.45 ERA/4.30 FIP with a 1.42 HR/9. Arizona has really been hitting the ball well of late and at this number, I have to go over.
Bet Diamondbacks/Padres Over 7.5
