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A 1-1 record last night.
We took the Yankees and the over on that game last night, but only the over came in. All of the run scoring happened in the first five innings of this one so that was nice to get it out of the way early as all of the runs were given up by the starters.
I really thought the Yankees were going to pull this off in the seventh inning when the Yankees had two on and no one out, then bases loaded and one out, but the Rays were able to get out of the jam and hold on for the win.
Three picks today, let’s get some wins.
Best Odds for MLB:
| Type of Bet / Prop: | Where To Bet: |
|---|---|
| R + H + E | BetOnline |
| MLB Grand Salami (Total Runs That Day) | Bovada |
| World Series Futures | SportsBetting.ag |
| 5 Inning Run Lines | BetOnline |
| 1st Inning Moneylines | Bovada |
| Total Team Runs Over/Under | Bovada |
All tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted.
New York Mets at Miami Marlins Betting Tips:
Mets: Jacob deGrom 2.43 ERA/2.67 FIP (2019)
Marlins: Pablo Lopez 5.09 ERA/4.28 FIP (2019)
Lopez has looked great to start this season and is a big part of the Marlins early success. That said, he has a real tough match-up against this deep Mets offense. The Mets have been very good against righties this season with a 123 wRC+ and they should be able to get to him for some runs here.
This tip is all about Jacob deGrom though. He’s one of the best pitchers in the game right now and the Mets offense has a lot of weak spots in it. He is a huge strikeout guy and the Marlins strike out nearly 25% of the time. I think he’s going to dominate for as long as he’s in this one. Lay the runs.
Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins Betting Tips:
Brewers: 3.89 ERA/4.57 FIP (2019)
Twins: Rich Hill 2.45 ERA/4.10 FIP (2019)
I don’t think they’ll end up here, but for the season the Twins have just an 87 wRC+ against lefties this season. Brett Anderson is a great groundball guy who doesn’t get a ton of strikeouts so there is risk here, but I like him to have a solid start here.
Rich Hill goes for the Twins and he’s a great pitcher who can just never stay healthy. He was excellent in his first start of the year and this will be his return from the injured list. If we get the Hill we’ve seen in the past, he should be able to keep the Brewers runs down.
This pick is a bit of a risk, but neither of these offenses has looked very good of late and the bullpens are both excellent right now.
Bet Brewers/Twins Under 9 Runs
Los Angeles Angels at San Francisco Giants Betting Tips:
Angels: Patrick Sandoval 3.94 ERA/4.71 FIP (2020)
Giants: Johnny Cueto 4.62 ERA/4.72 FIP (2020)
It should come as no surprise that we are going against Johny Cueto again here. The system is not a fan of him, but the real story right now is this Giants bullpen. They have just been giving up huge runs with a 6.27 FIP on the year with a league leading 2.09 HR/9 rate. If you are looking for Cueto to save you from your bullpen, it’s already too late. The Angels are one of the top home run hitting teams in the league.
Sandoval isn’t great, but I like the match-up against this offense. Still, this one is all about the Angels hitters and I think they’ll get it done here.
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