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Three MLB System picks for August 20th, 2021.
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller | 114 | 97 | 86 | 129 | 101 | 15 | 132 | 26 |
| STL | 92 | 98 | 88 | 91 | 22 | 117 | 7 | |
| Miles Mikolas | 76 | 0 | 75 | 66 | 102 | 18 | 61 | 2 |
| PIT | 75 | 99 | 90 | 82 | 28 | 54 | 30 |
Miles Mikolas is making just his second start of the season, but his track record is strong and he draws a great match-up here. The Pirates have just an 83 wRC+ against right handed pitching on the season. Mikolas has a career 3.81 ERA/3.95 FIP.
Mitch Keller has a 6.86 ERA/4.77 FIP on the season. He has really struggled with walks and has been much worse on the road this season. The Cardinals offense isn’t great with just an 88 wRC+ over the past two weeks, but they have been on fire over the last two weeks with a 117 wRC+.
Pick: Bet Cardinals -0.5 First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: -135 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.74 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/20 12:29:04 PM EST but are subject to change.)
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New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Carrasco | 184 | 329 | 93 | 61 | 100 | 14 | 113 | 19 |
| LAD | 106 | 102 | 109 | 109 | 3 | 120 | 5 | |
| Walker Buehler | 75 | 67 | 115 | 76 | 91 | 6 | 47 | 1 |
| NYM | 86 | 105 | 96 | 93 | 17 | 75 | 26 |
Walker Buehler is the top pitcher on the board today with a 2.09 ERA/3.13 FIP. He has a big strikeout rate and draws a great match-up against the Mets here. The bats have been ice cold for the Mets over the past two weeks with just a 75 wRC+. For the season, they have just a 90 wRC+ against righties.
Carlos Carrasco makes the start here for the Mets. A tiny sample size on him and I don’t see him going deep into this one. The Mets bullpen will take a heavy load here and they have a 113 FIP- over the past two weeks.
Going with the full game runline here because of the combination of Buehler and the Dodger bullpen. They have a 47 FIP- over the past two weeks.
Pick: Bet Dodgers -1.5
USA: Best Odds: -122 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.81 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/20 12:29:04 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moore | 127 | 159 | 86 | 106 | 110 | 28 | 120 | 23 |
| SDP | 97 | 98 | 108 | 101 | 11 | 99 | 17 | |
| Blake Snell | 104 | 103 | 121 | 154 | 90 | 4 | 88 | 8 |
| PHI | 97 | 106 | 100 | 94 | 16 | 67 | 28 |
Matt Moore stinks. He’s the worst pitcher on my board today with a 6.07 ERA/5.52 FIP. The Padres offense has talent and they should be able to take full advantage of him today.
Blake Snell has been solid this year, but he has been much better in his home starts with a 2.83 FIP.
Pick: Bet Padres -0.5 First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: -140 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.71 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/20 12:29:04 PM EST but are subject to change.)
