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MLB betting tips for August 20th, 2024.
3-1 last night. 227-160 this season.
W Diamondbacks -0.5 First 5 Innings (-130)
W Red Sox Over 3.5 Runs (-125)
W Padres Over 3.5 Runs (-135)
L Mariners Over 3.5 Runs (-128)
Well, I tried to warn you about the Mariners. I probably should’ve heeded my warning. Still, we’re in the midst of a 13-3 run right now despite that no-good Seattle team. Let’s keep it going.
The team overs have been doing well for us lately so I’m going to hit more of those today.
Four bets today.
All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
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Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees Betting Tips:
CLE – Matthew Boyd
NYY – Luis Gil
Boyd is only making his second start and I think he gets hit today. The ZiPS projection is at 4.45 ERA/3.92 FIP which is slightly below his career 4.92 ERA/4.62 FIP.
The Yankees offense can mash and they have incredible patience at the plate. That has been a struggle of Boyd’s in the past so it could rear its head here. New York has a 118 wRC+ at home and a 119 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
Luis Gil has had a great season, but he’s been especially strong at home with a 2.90 ERA/3.27 FIP. The Guardians have a 93 wRC+ against righties and a 71 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
Yankees First 5 Innings (-140)
Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips:
MIL – Frankie Montas
STL – Erick Fedde
Fedde pitched well enough to get himself off the White Sox, but he’s really slowed down in the later part of the season. Since the start of July, he has a 3.86 ERA/5.17 FIP. His walks are up and strikeouts are down. He’s allowed at least three runs in three of his past four starts.
The Brewers hit righties well and are hot at the plate right now with a 119 wRC+ over the past month.
Brewers Over 3.5 Runs (-125)
Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals Betting Tips:
LAA – Tyler Anderson
KCR – Cole Ragans
The Royals at home is always a good time and they are hot right now with a 126 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
Tyler Anderson is about an average pitcher with a 3.30 ERA/4.49 FIP on the season. That ERA is starting to creep up to where it should be over the last few starts. He’s allowed three or more runs in six of his last nine starts. Two of those games saw him allow 6+, including his last game, so a blow-up is possible here.
Royals Over 4.5 Runs (-117)
Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros Betting Tips:
BOS – Nick Pivetta
HOU – Ronel Blanco
Blanco allowed three runs (two earned) in a start against the Red Sox eleven days ago while only lasting four innings and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a repeat here. He has a 2.89 ERA/4.25 FIP this season and this is another player where that ERA is starting to catch up.
The Red Sox offense has been very good to us lately and should continue to be today. They have a 112 wRC+ against righties and a 117 wRC+ on the road.
Red Sox Over 3.5 Runs (-135)
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Player Props:
2-2 last time. 44-36 on total bases props this season.
W Tyler Fitzgerald Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
W Joc Pederson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+118)
L Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
L Luke Raley Over 1.5 Total Bases (+137)
An even night but a winning one thanks to the positive odds.
Four bets today:
- I’ve honestly been surprised that Vlad Jr. hasn’t popped up more recently as he’s been on an incredible heater. Over the past month, he has a .406 batting average and an .851 slugging percentage.
- The System liked the Mariners team over again today, but I just couldn’t do it. Still, Cal Raleigh has some great odds and he’s been the Mariners best hitter this season.
- I like the Red Sox offense above, but the Astros are probably winning that game. Yordan Alvarez has a 154 wRC+ against righties this season.
- The Giants are playing the White Sox so you know their hitters are looking good. Fitzgerald has been amazing with a 169 wRC+ against righties this season.
Total Bases and Home Run Props are bet at $5. This prop may be listed as Total Bases (From Hits). These bets are all for Over 1.5 Total Bases (From Hits) unless otherwise noted.
- TOR Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (-112)
- SEA Cal Raleigh Over 1.5 Total Bases (+134)
- HOU Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases (-106)
- SFG Tyler Fitzgerald Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
