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A 2-0 record last night.
The system was in love with Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers against the Mariners last night and that came in strong. Kershaw had a vintage game with 7 innings, 11 strikeouts, 4 hits, and just one run allowed. The Dodgers tagged Yusei Kikuchi for five runs and that was all she wrote for this one.
We also took the under of 8.5 runs on the Brewers/Twins game and this one looked like it was going to be an easy win with a 2-0 score at the end of the sixth. The Brewers added one and then the Twins added five more, but that still kept us under that magical 0.5 run and got us the win. The system is really down on the Brewers in scoring right now and it’s easy to see why with games like this.
A new weekend means new series. Let’s keep our good week going.
Best Odds for MLB:
| Type of Bet / Prop: | Where To Bet: |
|---|---|
| R + H + E | BetOnline |
| MLB Grand Salami (Total Runs That Day) | Bovada |
| World Series Futures | SportsBetting.ag |
| 5 Inning Run Lines | BetOnline |
| 1st Inning Moneylines | Bovada |
| Total Team Runs Over/Under | Bovada |
All tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted.
Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals Betting Tips:
Marlins: Daniel Castano 4.35 ERA/6.65 FIP (2020)
Nationals: Patrick Corbin 3.91 ERA/3.47 FIP (2020)
This game is similar to yesterday’s Mariners/Dodgers game with a strong left handed starter against a team that just can’t hit thme. The Marlins have just a 69 wRC+ on the year against left-handed pitchers and Corbin has been very solid thus far this season. The Marlins are fifth in K% in the league right now so there could be a ton of swing-and-miss on their part today.
Daniel Castano is nothing to get excited about and nothing to worry about. Low strikeouts thus far and he’s struggled with control. He’s also a lefty and the Nationals are third in MLB with a 141 wRC+ against left handed pitchers on the season. This could be a rough one for the Marlins. Lay the runs.
Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Tips:
Brewers: Adrian Houser 3.27 ERA/4.81 FIP (2020)
Pirates: Chad Kuhl 3.21 ERA/4.24 FIP (2020)
Here’s a stat:
Team wRC+ vs. Right handed pitching
Brewers: 64 (29th)
Pirates: 49 (30th)
Hey, that’s not great!
I really hate betting unders because you just never know what you are going to get out of the bullpen, but for the third day in a row the system is really down on the Brewers scoring anything or giving anything up. They have a good starter on the mound and a good bullpen to back him up.
Grab it at 9 if you can.
Bet Brewers/Pirates Under 8.5 Runs
Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs Betting Tips:
White Sox: Dallas Keuchel 3.07 ERA/3.58 FIP (2020)
Cubs: Jon Lester 2.74 ERA/4.43 FIP (2020)
Keuchel is a big time groundball pitcher and the Cubs are hitting groundballs at 46.5% clip, fourth highest in the league. As long as those balls don’t find holes, I think he could have a very good day here.
I am also expecting a big day out of the White Sox offense. The Sox offense is filled with guys who like to swing the bat and Lester has definitely entered the pitch to contact portion of his career. He has just a .188 BABIP thus far this season and his HR/FB rate is the lowest it’s been since 2014. These are trends that won’t keep up and I can see things going badly for him today.
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