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MLB betting tips for August 22nd, 2023.
1-1 last night on Patreon.
W Mariners Over 4.5 Runs
L Rangers/Diamondbacks Over 9 Runs
Riding high off that Mariners game hitting in the first inning (!) then the Rangers/Diamondbacks don’t score their first run until the 7th. Baseball.
A lot of really great match-ups today and we have one of our biggest days of the season with eight bets on Patreon. Four are available free below.
Today’s games:
- Colorado Rockies at Tampa Bay Rays
- St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates
- Washington Nationals at New York Yankees
- Los Angeles Dodgers at Cleveland Guardians
- New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
- Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros
- Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox
- Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres
All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
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Colorado Rockies at Tampa Bay Rays Betting Tips:
COL – Ty Blach
TBR – Zack Littell
Blach has had a nice little run as a starter here, but he’s been extremely lucky with a 2.66 ERA/4.96 FIP over his five starts. He doesn’t strike any out and he allows home runs. Bad days are coming and there is no day like the present. The Rays offense has a 113 wRC+ against lefties on the season and a 134 wRC+ over the past two weeks. The bullpen behind him is bad as well and playing worse of late.
I won’t dare to understand how this came to be, but the Ryas have seemingly turned Littell into a decent starter. He has a 2.78 ERA/3.22 FIP over his last four starts with decent numbers across the board. He’s maybe been a little lucky in the home run department, but that is unlikely to be a problem today. The Rockies have an 84 wRC+ against righties and a 77 wRC+ on the road.
Rays -1.5 (-126)
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St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Tips:
STL – Adam Wainwright
PIT – Johan Oviedo
Washington Nationals at New York Yankees Betting Tips:
WSN – Josiah Gray
NYY – Carlos Rodon
Rodon has a 7.30 ERA/7.65 FIP over his last three starts and the Nationals are surprisingly dangerous against lefties with a 107 wRC+.
Gray has a 7.27 ERA/5.17 FIP over his last four starts. The Yankees offense has been a huge disappointment this year, but they hit better at home, and between Gray and the bullpen, they will have plenty of opportunity.
Nationals/Yankees Over 8.5 Runs (-105)
Los Angeles Dodgers at Cleveland Guardians Betting Tips:
LAD – Bobby Miller
CLE – Noah Syndergaard
New York Mets at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:
NYM – Tylor Megill
ATL – Bryce Elder
A pitcher with a 5.53 ERA/5.14 FIP against the Braves offense. What else do you need to know? Braves have a 120 wRC+ against righties, a 126 wRC+ at home, and a 135 wRC+ over the past two weeks. They can hit anyone and everyone on the Mets pitching staff. They might get the chance today. The Braves team total is at 6.5, a huge number outside of Coors.
Elder has pitched solid and the Braves bullpen is one of the best in all of baseball. The Mets have been a bit hot at the plate, but I just don’t see them keeping up here.
Braves -1.5 (-113)
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Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros Betting Tips:
BOS – Tanner Houck
HOU – Justin Verlander
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Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox Betting Tips:
SEA – Bryan Woo
CHW – Mike Clevinger
Did you know you can get the Mariners +400 to win the AL West? They are two games back. That’s pretty interesting.
Anyway, this offense has been killing it of late and I struggle to find a reason to go against it here. Clevinger has been luckier than good this season with a 3.26 ERA/4.42 FIP/5.37 xFIP. That means he’s been really lucky with his HR/FB rate. It sits at just 7.8%, far below average, and if that was going to go up, well, today is as good as any.
The Mariners have a 149 wRC+ over the past two weeks and ran all over this bullpen last night. They’ve scored six or more in seven of their last eight games.
Mariners Over 4.5 Runs (-125)
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Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres Betting Tips:
MIA – Jesus Luzardo
SDP – Blake Snell
