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MLB Betting Tips for August 23rd, 2024.
1-1 last night. 232-164 this season.
W Yankees -0.5 First 5 Innings (-140)
L Cardinals Over 3.5 Runs (-115)
Today is Friday which means today’s Patreon post is completely free. It’s been a profitable week and month thus far so let’s keep that going.
Four bets today and five player props.
All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
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Colorado Rockies at New York Yankees Betting Tips:
COL – Kyle Freeland
NYY – Carlos Rodon
Freeland has an 8.23 ERA/5.19 FIP on the road this season. He has a huge home run rate in those starts and now he faces the New York Yankees. I don’t see this going well.
Aaron Judge has a .726 slugging percentage this season. The league average on-base plus slugging percentage is .713. Juan Soto has a 1.037 OPS this season. Sometimes all you need is two.
The Rockies have just a 78 wRC+ on the road this season and a 79 wRC+ against lefties. Rodon has been solid and the Yankees bullpen is good.
Yankees -1.5 (-134)
Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlins Betting Tips:
CHC – Kyle Hendricks
MIA – Max Meyer
Hendricks has a 7.28 ERA/5.97 FIP on the road this season with a 2.13 HR/9 rate.
Miami has been a hot offense since the trade deadline with Jake Burger absolutely going off. This team plays better at home and has been hitting much better over the past month.
Marlins Over 3.5 Runs (-125)
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Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:
ARI – Ryne Nelson
BOS – Brayan Bello
These two offenses have been very good to us over the past month and now they face each other. I expect fireworks.
The Diamondbacks have a 145 wRC+ over the past month and a 130 wRC+ over the past two weeks. They hit righties well and they are clicking on all cylinders right now.
Boston has a 113 wRC+ against righties and a 124 wRC+ over the past month.
I don’t know if I would care who is starting today, but both pitchers are closer to average than anything. Plus, the Red Sox bullpen has been a hot mess for a month.
Diamondbacks/Red Sox Over 9.5 Runs (-114)
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Philadelphia Phillies at Kansas City Royals Betting Tips:
PHI – Taijuan Walker
KCR – Michael Wacha
Walker has a 5.63 ERA/5.00 FIP on the road this season with a high BABIP and a low strikeout rate.
The Royals at home have been very good to us this year. They have a 108 wRC+ at home and a 126 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
That almost hides how good they’ve been at home. They are averaging 5.23 runs per game at home this season. A big part of that is Bobby Witt Jr. who has a .404 batting average at home this season.
Royals Over 4.5 Runs (-120)
Player Props:
2-2 last time. 51-42 on total bases props this season.
W Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases (-104)
L Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases (+104)
L Alex Call Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
W Luis Garcia Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
The tiniest of profits last night.
Five bets today:
- I am going to try something different today and go with two players at over 2.5 total bases. Judge and Witt Jr. are the top two players of the day and their prices reflect that at 1.5. Two hits with one as an extra-base hit would cash and that’s typically how it goes on their good nights.
- Bobby Miller has really struggled for the Dodgers and Lowe has been the Rays’ best hitter both against righties and over the past month.
- Joey Bart is one of the stories of the season. He was traded by the Giants to the Pirates and was so mad about it that he became a great hitter. He’s hitting over .300 for the past month.
- Finally, what’s one more New York Yankee between friends? If Judge looks good, Soto looks good.
Total Bases and Home Run Props are bet at $5. This prop may be listed as Total Bases (From Hits). These bets are all for Over 1.5 Total Bases (From Hits) unless otherwise noted.
- NYY Aaron Judge Over 2.5 Total Bases (+124)
- KCR Bobby Witt Jr. Over 2.5 Total Bases (+125)
- TBR Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 Total Bases (+114)
- PIT Joey Bart Over 1.5 Total Bases (+127)
- NYY Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125)
