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An 0-2 record last night.
There was a time at the old BetMLB site that I would take off Sundays because we had such bad luck. No matter who we picked or why, it just wouldn’t seem to come in. I’m not saying that’s what happened here, but yesterday did remind me of that.
We took the Astros over the Padres and this one was tied heading into the late innings. In the end, the Padres bullpen was fantastic and the Astros bullpen blew it for us. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. We knew that to be the case, but the Astros never scored after the first inning and Greinke gave up three runs in six innings.
We took the Braves in the late game and the Phillies bullpen decided to show up for once. The real issue was Josh Tomlin who gave up four runs on three homeruns in just three innings. We weren’t expecting much from him, but when you give up that amount of homeruns – bad things are bound to happen.
A forgettable end to the week. Let’s start fresh with three picks tonight as we dust off the full version of the MLB System for tonight’s games.
Best Odds for MLB:
| Type of Bet / Prop: | Where To Bet: |
|---|---|
| R + H + E | BetOnline |
| MLB Grand Salami (Total Runs That Day) | Bet365 |
| World Series Futures | SportsBetting.ag |
| 5 Inning Run Lines | BetOnline |
| 1st Inning Moneylines | Bet365 |
| Total Team Runs Over/Under | Bet365 |
All tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted.
Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers Betting Tips:
Athletics: Jesus Luzardo 3.67 ERA/3.92 FIP
Rangers: Lance Lynn 1.37 ERA/3.24 FIP
Lance Lynn has been fantastic to the season, but as you can see above he’s also had luck on his side as he has an unsustainable 94.7% left on base percentage and a .174 batting average on balls in play. He’s good, but nobody is that good. This is one of the toughest match-ups he’s had to date as the Athletics have really been hitting the ball lately. They are also one of the most patient teams in the league with a 11.1% walk rate and they will work the counts on him today, leading to an early exit.
Luzardo is nothing to get excited about, but any warm body against this Rangers offense right now is something to get excited about. They have a 66 wRC+ on the season and they have been just as bad against lefties. The Athletics bullpen is good and I just see the Rangers continuing to struggle to score here. I mean, they just got swept by the Mariners. I think the Athletics should do just fine against them today.
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips:
Reds: Trevor Bauer 0.68 ERA/1.92 FIP
Brewers: Brett Anderson 3.71 ERA/4.26 FIP
The system is predictably all over Trevor Bauer here and I’m really surprised this line is so low. The Brewers offense has been bad all season with just a 66 wRC+ against right handed starters. Bauer has been the best right handed starter in baseball thus far this season with a huge strikeout rate. He’s similar to Lynn with unsustainable LOB% and BABIP, but tonight isn’t the night for it to regress for him. The Brewers are 5th in MLB with a 26% strikeout rate so I’m not sure what the sportsbooks are seeing in Milwaukee here.
The Reds offense is starting to heat up and they’ve hit lefties much better than righties all year. Brett Anderson is average at best and they should be able to get a couple off him. That may be enough and the Reds bullpen has performed much better over the past two weeks.
Since I’m using the full system and this is my pick of the day, I’m making this my first two unit play of the season.
Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros Betting Tips:
Angels: Patrick Sandoval 5.40 ERA/5.89 FIP
Astros: Framber Valdez 1.72 ERA/2.56 FIP
This pick is all about the Astros offense and Sandoval. Patrick Sandoval has given up nine runs over his past two starts and he’s been hit hard all season. He’s not much of a strikeout guy and he’s running a low BABIP so things could actually get worse for him. The Astros are an elite offense against lefties with a 124 wRC+ so I think they can and will mash today.
Framber Valdez has been the best of the Astros pitchers this season. He has four straight starts of six or more innings pitched and he’s allowed one earned run or less in all of them. That includes a tough match-ups at Colorado, at Oakland, and at the Angels. The Angels have been very bad against lefties all season.
If I had a little more faith in the Astros bullpen I would recommend laying the runs here, but -162 is still worth betting here.
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