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Three MLB System tips for August 28th, 2021.
A 3-0 record on Thursday.
MLB Betting Tips:
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alek Manoah | 100 | 94 | 117 | 102 | 105 | 21 | 122 | 27 |
| DET | 93 | 111 | 98 | 92 | 17 | 71 | 27 | |
| Jose Urena | 124 | 106 | 60 | 117 | 107 | 24 | 104 | 19 |
| TOR | 113 | 90 | 94 | 111 | 2 | 88 | 23 |
This is a great match-up from a pitcher vs. offense perspective. Jose Urena has a 6.19 ERA/5.36 FIP on the season with low strikeouts and high walks. He faces a Blue Jays offense that is great all around with a 111 wRC+ against righties on the season.
Alek Manoah is nearly exactly a league average pitcher. None of his numbers will kill you, they are all just decent. The Tigers offense is not decent. They have a 89 wRC+ against righties and have played even worse over the past two weeks.
Pick: Bet Blue Jays -0.5 First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: -140 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.71 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/28 12:24:50 PM EST but are subject to change.)
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San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Angels Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Weathers | 132 | 158 | 76 | 86 | 93 | 7 | 111 | 21 |
| LAA | 99 | 101 | 87 | 100 | 12 | 82 | 25 | |
| Jose Suarez | 103 | 99 | 91 | 105 | 101 | 17 | 94 | 13 |
| SDP | 97 | 97 | 107 | 100 | 12 | 60 | 30 |
The Angels are looking good in this match-up. I am a big fan of their offense as they have a 106 wRC+ against lefties and Ryan Weathers is very hittable. He has a 5.27 ERA/5.48 FIP on the season and has really struggled in giving up the homerun ball.
Jose Suarez goes for the Angels and I think he can do enough to get us there. He’s about league average across the board and faces a Padres offense that is really struggling of late with just a 60 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
Pick: Bet Angels First 5 Innings Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: -107 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.93 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/28 12:24:50 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Bet Horse Racing - +£21,565.98 profit on £25/pt staking. Click for more details.
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Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Gray | 90 | 84 | 98 | 105 | 108 | 26 | 89 | 8 |
| LAD | 107 | 102 | 108 | 108 | 4 | 91 | 19 | |
| David Price | 95 | 82 | 83 | 73 | 91 | 4 | 98 | 15 |
| COL | 96 | 99 | 88 | 81 | 29 | 97 | 15 |
Unders are always a risk, but this looks like a decent match-up across the board.
Jon Gray is a very good starter with a 4.13 ERA/3.98 FIP. He’s on the road here, in a pitcher’s park, and has been much better away from home this season. The Dodgers offense is very good, 112 wRC+ against righties, but they have struggled over late with just a 91 wRC+ over the past two weeks. The Rockies bullpen has performed well of late as well.
David Price won’t go deep into this one, but he’s been very solid and the Dodgers bullpen is one of the best in the league. As a team, the Rockies have just an 81 wRC+ on the season.
It will be close, but I see this one finishing with eight runs or less.
Pick: Bet Dodgers/Rockies Under 9 Runs
USA: Best Odds: -118 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.84 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/28 12:24:50 PM EST but are subject to change.)
