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This could be the year of the nightmare scenario in MLB. They are currently five different teams within 3.5 games of the AL Wild Card (with three of those teams being within two) and three teams within 2.5 of the National League Wild Card. Per MLB rules, if two teams are tied for the second Wild Card those two teams would play a one-game playoff to decide who gets to be in the one game playoff. This has happened before, but what if there were three? Four? We could get all the way to game 164 before the playoffs actually started. Of course, this would like be great for MLB’s ratings so maybe “nightmare” isn’t the right word to describe this.
The Yankees have done a great job over the past couple of weeks getting themselves back in this conversation, but a loss last night to the Royals put them in the fifth spot. They’ll need to get back on track tonight or this series with KC could be an elimination one for them. The same can be said about the series currently going on with Miami and the Mets. This is the time for some team to strike as the 2nd Wild Card holding Orioles are in a tough series with the Blue Jays right now. We’re entering the final month of the season and we’re getting into the every game matters territory for some teams. Let’s have some fun.
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Speaking of the Orioles-Jays, that series continues tonight with JA Happ going up against Ubaldo Jimenez. Happ has been great for the Jays this season and has been putting together one of the best years of his career. Going by FIP he’s actually having his second best year of his career after last year. It’s not often that someone’s best years come in their age-32 and 33 years, but that’s baseball for you. We like Happ, but more than that we love going against Jimenez. He has a 6.62 ERA on the year and is allowing a shocking 11.4 hits per nine and 5.3 walks per nine. That means if he pitched a full game he would be allowing almost 17 baserunners. That’s… not good. The Jays -142 is a bit higher than we normally like, but this one feels like a lock.
The Royals devil magic is back. We’ve been counting them out for three years now and they just keep crawling back. Are they doing it again? I think they might be. The Royals +129 are home dogs in this one, but they are 41-21 at home this season and playing their best ball of the year. They draw a tough pitching match-up in Tanaka, but they don’t strike out a lot so that always sort of negates the strengths of tough starters. It doesn’t make sense from a starting pitcher match-up, but nothing about the Royals ever make sense. Volquez has been finding a way lately and the offense has been hot. They just get it done and tonight they move to one game back in the second Wild Card.
Not a fan of the Marlins offense without Giancarlo Stanton and I think the Mets -119 are cooking up some of that Royals-esque devil magic for a late season run here. Seth Lugo has shown a very sick curveball in his limited appearances this season and I think he’ll cause some trouble for the Marlins tonight as the Mets move closer to a Wild Card berth.
My favorite offense of the night is the Reds +140. In the second half of the season they have the 5th best offense in all of baseball by OPS. They face Jered Weaver of the Angels tonight who is one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball right now with a 5.32 ERA. The Angels should score too, but I think the Reds are going to set the bar very high in this one.
