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Three MLB System tips for August 31st, 2021.
A 3-0 record last night!
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moore | 132 | 161 | 83 | 115 | 106 | 23 | 68 | 1 |
| WSN | 93 | 98 | 94 | 99 | 14 | 110 | 7 | |
| Patrick Corbin | 130 | 170 | 79 | 82 | 109 | 27 | 141 | 30 |
| PHI | 99 | 104 | 102 | 94 | 16 | 93 | 15 |
These are two pitchers that we love to target going against two offenses that hit lefties well.
Matt Moore has a 6.12 ERA/5.70 FIP and the Nationals offense has a 115 wRC+ against lefties on the season. Patrick Corbin has a 6.09 ERA/5.52 FIP on the season and Phillies have a 103 wRC+ against lefties. These are also two bullpens that I don’t trust at all.
If you can get this number at 9 runs, you should go for that.
Pick: Bet Phillies/Nationals Over 9.5
Canada: Best Odds: 1.93 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -125 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.90 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/31 11:42:55 AM EST but are subject to change.)
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Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Irvin | 90 | 58 | 68 | 59 | 100 | 14 | 110 | 23 |
| DET | 92 | 111 | 96 | 90 | 24 | 67 | 28 | |
| Tarik Skubal | 112 | 153 | 114 | 91 | 107 | 25 | 118 | 24 |
| OAK | 100 | 98 | 106 | 102 | 8 | 79 | 24 |
The Athletics are the better team overall here and they have the better starter on the mound.
Cole Irvin’s strikeout numbers aren’t that impressive, but he gets the job done with a 3.68 ERA/3.73 FIP. The Tigers offense is decent against lefties with a 98 wRC+, but they just have a 90 wRC+ overall.
The Oakland offense has a 102 wRC+ against lefties. They draw a nice match-up against Tarik Skubal who has a 4.01 ERA/4.88 FIP. Skubal has big walk and homerun numbers which could be trouble for him as the Athletics have a great walk percentage.
Pick: Bet Athletics Moneyline
Canada: Best Odds: 1.87 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -115 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.86 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/31 11:42:55 AM EST but are subject to change.)
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Chicago Cubs at Minnesota Twins Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Davies | 127 | 119 | 75 | 124 | 110 | 28 | 123 | 27 |
| MIN | 108 | 99 | 105 | 102 | 8 | 83 | 22 | |
| John Gant | 117 | 64 | 79 | 170 | 107 | 25 | 130 | 29 |
| CHC | 99 | 120 | 89 | 91 | 23 | 102 | 10 |
Things have not going well for the Cubs of late with almost nothing going well. They don’t have a good starter going today, they don’t have a good bullpen, and their offense is weak. You can pretty much bet against them in any game and feel good about it.
I like the Twins to get the job done here. They have a very good offense that hits a ton of homeruns. They have a 105 wRC+ against righties while Zach Davies gives up a lot of homeruns and has a 5.00 ERA/5.26 FIP.
John Gant is nothing special, but he’s better at home and the Cubs have just an 86 wRC+ against righties.
Pick: Bet Twins Moneyline
Canada: Best Odds: 1.67 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -145 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.68 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/31 11:42:55 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Bet Horse Racing - +£21,565.98 profit on £25/pt staking. Click for more details.
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Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lance McCullers Jr. | 85 | 61 | 119 | 129 | 100 | 14 | 97 | 14 |
| SEA | 94 | 111 | 104 | 92 | 22 | 91 | 18 | |
| Yusei Kikuchi | 112 | 133 | 108 | 104 | 88 | 3 | 85 | 8 |
| HOU | 102 | 84 | 107 | 117 | 1 | 119 | 2 |
The Astros are one of the best teams in the league against left handed pitching and they draw a strong match-up here. Yusei Kikuchi has a 4.33 ERA/4.71 FIP on the year and homeruns have been an issue. The Astros enter this game red hot with a 119 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
Lance McCullers Jr. is a solid pitcher with a 3.32 ERA/3.54 FIP. The Mariners offense has just a 92 wRC+ against righties on the season.
Pick: Bet Astros -0.5 First 5 Innings
Canada: Best Odds: 1.87 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -115 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.87 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/31 11:42:55 AM EST but are subject to change.)
