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A 1-1 record last night.
We got the win with the Reds over the Indians last night as it ended up being a very close game. The Indians jumped out to an early 2-0 lead, but then they never scored again. Zach Plesac was cruising into the sixth with a 2-1 lead before giving up a 2-run homerun to Joey Votto. That was all the run scoring in the game as the Reds held on for the win.
The Twins got the win, but we laid the -1.5 runs and the offense took awhile to get going. They didn’t manage to score until the sixth and ended up winning 5-4. The Twins are now 8-2 on the season.
Two tips today, let’s get into.
Best Odds for MLB:
| Type of Bet / Prop: | Where To Bet: |
|---|---|
| R + H + E | BetOnline |
| MLB Grand Salami (Total Runs That Day) | Bovada |
| World Series Futures | SportsBetting.ag |
| 5 Inning Run Lines | BetOnline |
| 1st Inning Moneylines | Bovada |
| Total Team Runs Over/Under | Bovada |
All tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted.
Chicago White Sox at Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips:
White Sox: Lucas Giolito 3.41 ERA/3.43 FIP (2019)
Brewers: Brandon Woodruff 3.62 ERA/3.01 FIP (2019)
Gio has been really up and down in his two starts this season. He allowed seven runs in his first start against the Twins and then turned around and threw six scoreless innings against the Indians. The walks rate is worrisome and he’s given up a good amount of homeruns throughout his career. This Brewers offense has been a letdown thus far, but that can almost be 100% tied to the performance of Christian Yelich. You have to think he’s going to break out sooner or later.
Brandon Woodruff has been fantastic in his first two starts of the year with a 1.59 ERA/2.33 FIP and a 11.91 K/9 rate. He’s a very good pitcher and I think he can do well here.
Ultimately, this pick comes down to trust and I trust Woodruff a lot more than I trust Giolito. If things go wrong for him they tend to go really wrong.
Houston Astros at Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Tips:
Astros: Cristian Javier 1.35 ERA/2.74 FIP (2020)
Diamondbacks: Madison Bumgarner 3.90 ERA/3.90 (2019)
Cristian Javier is one of the Astros’ top prospects and he had a great first start last week with eight strikeouts and only one run allowed in 5 2/3 innings. That was against the Dodgers who are one of the best offenses in the league and the Diamondbacks aren’t that. While I don’t quite expect that level of dominance, I think he can be solid here and put his team in a good position to win.
Madison Bumgarner goes for the Diamondbacks and I honestly feel bad for picking on him so much here. I think I’ll eventually go with him as he’s not as bad as I make him out to be, but this match-up in this park is exactly why I am often so down on him. The homerun rate is going to go up this year as he leaves San Francisco and starts playing his home games at Chase Field. That should play out today and the Astros should roll.
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