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Four MLB System tips for August 5th, 2021.
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Anderson | 102 | 117 | 84 | 61 | 88 | 3 | 114 | 25 |
| NYY | 102 | 104 | 125 | 100 | 13 | 93 | 21 | |
| Nestor Cortes | 51 | 22 | 129 | 91 | 87 | 2 | 84 | 8 |
| SEA | 104 | 111 | 103 | 92 | 19 | 103 | 12 |
The Mariners made a nice little pickup with Tyler Anderson, but he is not likely to look like a nice pickup today. The Yankees offense is excellent against left handed pitching and they’ve only gotten better with their recent trades. This team really is the Bronx Bombers and a pitcher with a 1.41 HR/9 rate is right up their alley.
Not much sample on Cortes, but the Mariners have just a 90 wRC+ against lefties. He doesn’t need to be great, he only needs to be average.
Pick: Bet Yankees -0.5 First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: -135 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.74 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/05 12:59:55 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Cleveland Indians at Toronto Blue Jays Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Triston McKenzie | 134 | 156 | 121 | 188 | 92 | 5 | 109 | 22 |
| TOR | 129 | 91 | 93 | 113 | 2 | 121 | 3 | |
| Ross Stripling | 125 | 157 | 100 | 84 | 106 | 23 | 105 | 19 |
| CLE | 105 | 101 | 88 | 89 | 23 | 93 | 21 |
This pick is all about the offensive disparity between these two teams. The Blue Jays are amazing. The Indians stink.
Neither pitcher gives me a lot of confidence, but putting McKenzie and his 6.11 ERA/5.72 FIP against this Blue Jays lineup feels like a gift at this price. Take the gift.
Pick: Bet Blue Jays -0.5 First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: -115 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.86 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/05 12:59:55 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin Jax | 145 | 185 | 80 | 110 | 106 | 23 | 106 | 20 |
| HOU | 111 | 84 | 108 | 119 | 1 | 130 | 2 | |
| Framber Valdez | 101 | 69 | 91 | 125 | 104 | 22 | 85 | 10 |
| MIN | 120 | 96 | 103 | 105 | 6 | 115 | 5 |
The Astros have the better offense, better (and improved) bullpen, and better starter. This is another lay-up and the System’s favorite pick of the day.
The Astros have a 119 wRC+ against right handed pitching on the season. Griffin Jax has a 6.41 ERA/6.17 FIP on the season. This one will be over before you know it.
Pick: Bet Astros -1.5
USA: Best Odds: -125 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.80 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/05 12:59:55 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Touki Toussaint | 100 | 132 | 120 | 62 | 99 | 12 | 79 | 6 |
| STL | 90 | 99 | 85 | 88 | 25 | 104 | 10 | |
| Wade LeBlanc | 120 | 109 | 61 | 77 | 103 | 18 | 80 | 7 |
| ATL | 117 | 109 | 101 | 99 | 15 | 105 | 9 |
I was expecting Toussaint to start to look human after two great starts. Now, I’m looking for him to be good again. The Cardinals offense can do that for him as they have just an 88 wRC+ against righties on the season.
Wade LeBlanc should help them to get the job done. The Braves have just a 96 wRC+ against lefties on the season, but some of their recent additions should help with that. LeBlanc has a 4.17 ERA/4.99 FIP on the season with few strikeouts and a 1.32 HR/9 rate. He’s hittable. The Braves can hit.
Pick: Bet Braves Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: -116 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.86 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/05 12:59:55 PM EST but are subject to change.)
