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A tough night last night that I’d rather forget.
We took two overs yesterday where only one of the two teams showed up. I thought the Mariners offense looked good against a rookie pitcher with bad minors stats, but they somehow only managed one hit in the entire game. This offense looked good over the first two weeks, but has looked terrible over the past few games. So, is this the first thing the small sample size or the second thing? This is what makes picking in the early going and trying to use stats so difficult in my opinion.
The weather was really in our favor for an over in the Phillies/Braves game (as it is again today), but the Braves were just not able to get anything going. When you’re top four hitters combined to go 0-for-15, you probably aren’t going to win. Jake Arrieta is alright, but I really think the Braves let us down here.
The Padres were our other pick of the night, but they fell to the Diamondbacks. Chris Paddack was great until the sixth inning when he allowed two homeruns. The Padres had a ton of chances in this one though and just couldn’t convert. Machado, Myers and Hosmer, their big contract players, combined for 1-for-12 with eight left on base. That’s not going to do it.
This has definitely been a learning weekend if nothing else. Offense isn’t quite where I thought it would be right now as batting average is at just .231 (compared to .252 last year) and slugging is also way down from .435 to .396. Until I see some improvements in those numbers I think I might be staying away from overs. Everyone loves to bet the over, but they just haven’t been there. 2/3rds of the league has gone under more than over with Cleveland at 2-14 leading the way for most unders. That one is to be expected with a weak offense and great pitching, but Boston at 3-10-1 is the real red flag to me as they have terrible pitching and a solid offense.
I also probably jumped too soon to the full system and am going back to a more simplified version. I’ll be shooting for later in the month, about the 20 game mark, before I get back to the full. This should help us get back on track for now.
Some early games today. Let’s get ’em.
Best Odds for MLB:
| Type of Bet / Prop: | Where To Bet: |
|---|---|
| R + H + E | BetOnline |
| MLB Grand Salami (Total Runs That Day) | Bovada |
| World Series Futures | SportsBetting.ag |
| 5 Inning Run Lines | BetOnline |
| 1st Inning Moneylines | Bovada |
| Total Team Runs Over/Under | Bovada |
All tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted.
Colorado Rockies at Seattle Mariners Betting Tips:
Rockies: German Marquez 4.76 ERA/4.06 FIP (2019)
Mariners: Justus Sheffield 5.50 ERA/4.71 FIP (2019)
I swear this is not me being reactionary, but I like the under in this one. The Mariners offense is in dire straits right now and German Marquez is a very good pitcher. The Rockies bullpen has been fantastic and I’m just not sure I see the Mariners doing much again here. They don’t have the depth outside of their top couple of hitters.
Sheffield is a big regression candidate to me. He’s been very unlucky last year and through his first couple of starts of this season. His batting average on balls in play is huge which is weird because the Mariners have a great infield defense. He’s a solid pitcher, but he has been very unlucky early and I think he’s due for some of that to come back around.
Bet Mariners/Rockies Under 8.5 Runs
Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox Betting Tips:
Indians: Shane Bieber 3.28 ERA/3.32 FIP (2019)
White Sox: Lucas Giolito 3.41 ERA/3.43 FIP (2019)
I ran this one a couple of ways to make sure the system wasn’t lying to me, but it really likes the White Sox here. Bieber is a better pitcher than Giolito, but the White Sox offense is far better than the Indians offense and that is going to make the difference here. The White Sox have a 114 wRC+ on the season thus far while the Indians are at just a 74 wRC+. That is an enormous gap.
Bieber finally showed he was human in his last start when the Reds hit a couple of homeruns off of him and this Sox offense is definitely capable of that. Giolito had a terrible first start, but has looked very good in his last two including six shutout innings against the Indians.
The White Sox are a nicely priced underdog in a prime time game at home.
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