August 9th, 2024 MLB Betting Tips

MLB betting tips for August 9th, 2024.

2-1 last night. 208-147 this season on Patreon.

W Mets Over 5.5 Runs (-125)
W Orioles/Jays Over 9 Runs (-110)
L Mariners -0.5 First 5 Innings (-130)

It’s been a winning week thus far with a 7-3 record. Friday means a fresh set of match-ups and we have some good ones tonight.

Four bets plus player props.

All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

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Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays Betting Tips:

BAL – Zach Eflin
TBR – Zack Littell

Both starters are decent, but pretty close to average overall. They have ERAs of 4.05 and 4.06 so there is no real clear advantage there, and I don’t expect either to toss a shutout.

The Orioles are one of the best offenses in the game. They have a 117 wRC+ against righties and a 130 wRC+ over the past two weeks.

The Rays, despite all the trades, have hit well over the last two weeks with a 109 wRC+.

Throw in the Orioles recent bullpen struggles and I don’t quite get why this line is set at just 7.5. This is one of those games where I think it will be at least an “average” game of eight runs scored, but I have this closer to nine than eight.

Orioles/Rays Over 7.5 (-124)

Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays Betting Tips:

OAK – Mitch Spence
TOR – Jose Berrios

Berrios is in shambles right now with a 6.10 ERA/6.18 FIP over his last four starts. He’s allowed at least three runs in eight of his past ten starts. The bullpen behind him is no better with a 5.84 ERA over the past month.

Spence is nothing to get excited about either. He has a 4.79 ERA/5.84 FIP over his last four starts. Spence has allowed at least four runs in his past three road starts.

The Jays are red-hot at the plate right now with a 121 wRC+ over the past two weeks. The Athletics are in a cold stretch right now, but they have a 121 wRC+ over the past month.

Athletics/Jays Over 8.5 Runs (-120)

Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:

HOU – Ronel Blanco
BOS – Tanner Houck

I’ve been waiting a long time for a Blanco reckoning and I think tonight is the night. Blanco has a 2.98 ERA/4.43 FIP. He’s been very lucky all season with a .197 BABIP with a high left-on-base percentage.

The reason I think tonight is the night is this Red Sox offense. They have a 112 wRC+ against righties and have been absolutely on fire with a 138 wRC+ over the past month and a 150 wRC+ over the last two weeks.

Houck has had some struggles of late, but he’s having a great season overall and I think he’s catching the Astros at the right time. They have a 94 wRC+ over the past two weeks and a 98 wRC+ on the road.

Red Sox Moneyline (-134)

Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Tips:

PIT – Mitch Keller
LAD – Jack Flaherty

The Pirates are finally coming down to earth with four straight losses. They have a fun team with some fun players, but you can’t compete with an offense this bad.

I think that shows up today as they face a good pitcher in Jack Flaherty. He’s having a great season with a 2.80 ERA/3.03 FIP/2.61 xFIP. His strikeouts have been huge and he’s done well to keep his walks and home runs down. Those trends should continue as the Pirates have just an 84 wRC+ against righties.

Keller is a solid pitcher, but his match-up is far more difficult. The Dodgers have a 124 wRC+ against righties and a 120 wRC+ at home.

Dodgers -0.5 First 5 Innings (-133)

Player Props:

I have been posting Total Bases props since the end of last month and have had some success with a 27-23 record. So many recent wins have come via home run games that I am going to sprinkle some of those into my player prop bets as well.

This is a newer system that is still being tweaked so I am keeping the units low.

Total Bases and Home Run Props are bet at $5. This prop may be listed as Total Bases (From Hits).

Five bets today:

• BOS Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Total Bases (-104)

  I’m high on the Red Sox today and Devers stands high above the rest with a 171 wRC+ at home this season.


• MIL Willy Adames Over 1.5 Total Bases (+131)
• MIL Garrett Mitchell Over 1.5 Total Bases (+144)
  
  Adames is the top Brewer of the day because he hits great at home with a 143 wRC+, but I had to throw Mitchell in because of Spiers left/right splits. Lefties have a .832 OPS against him this season. Mitchell is hitting .300 against lefties in 70 at-bats. Spiers didn’t allow a home run in his first seven starts. He’s allowed seven home runs in his last five starts.

• ATL Marcell Ozuna Home Run (+250)
• ATL Austin Riley Home Run (+300)

  Today is a good day to try some home run props. Tanner Gordon has only made four starts for Colorado, but he’s allowed six home runs in those starts. Five of those homers have come against right-handed hitters. It’s a small sample size, but those stats make Ozuna and Riley the top two players on the board in the best-hitting park ever made.

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