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BDO 2013 World Championship Day Five Premium Picks.
A great start to the second round for us last night, as Robbie Green starts off as a comfortable winner against a poor Scott Mitchell. Green’s 4-1 wasn’t spectacular, but he did more than enough. Then we had the tie of the tournament so far, when Darryl Fitton knocked out No.1 seed Stephen Bunting. Both men gave it everything, we had a lot of 180s, some nice finishing and a lot of drama. Wesley Harms beat out Alan Norris in another thriller, going all the way to 4-3. Finally, Tony O’Shea got over the line easily enough after a shaky start against Steve Douglas. The match was scrappy, but O’Shea’s class shone through from the third set onwards.
Tonight we’ve got the second half of the Second Round matches, and we start with Garry Thompson and Jan Dekker. Jason Cullen then takes on Paul Jennings. The penultimate match sees Geert de Vos taking on Scott Waites, and De Vos will be hoping to make Waites the latest in the list of big name casualties.. And to end the evening, Richie George takes on Jimmy Hendriks.
The Premium Picks went 3-1 last night, and we’re on a profit of 7.2 units after four days of the 2013 BDO World Championship.
Jan Dekker (7) Vs Garry Thompson.
Jan Dekker can consider himself a bit of a lucky man. However, his average of 85.26 wasn’t bad, and he’ll be happy with the fight and determination he showed in his win over Jeffery de Graaf. Dekker hit 3 180s, and a highest checkout of 150. He started incredibly slowly, even though he won the set – he won the set with legs of 21, 21 and 14. To be fair, De Graaf needed legs of 14-17 to win against Dekker, and he was on a finish quite a few times. Garry Thompson got a big win over Gary Robson, with an average of 88.83. Thompson hit 5 180s in his win, and had a highest finish of 98. Thompson looked good on the two-dart checkouts. I think this could be close, but Thompson’s average showed he’s playing good darts and I’ve been looking to oppose Dekker when the price is right, and I think the price is definitely right for Thompson.
Garry Thompson to beat Jan Dekker 5/4 @ Stan James.
Recommend: 2 units.
Paul Jennings Vs Jason Cullen.
The only match with two unseeded players, and it’s got the potential to be a good one if their first round performances are anything to go by. Paul Jennings averaged 87.12 in his win over the in-form Ross Montgomery. Jennings hit 5 180s, but the most impressive feat was his 144 checkout. He thrived under the pressure, and looked like a real threat. But Cullen also looked impressive with his 4 maximums and 88.74 average. Not big checkouts, but he didn’t need to thanks to his high scoring. I can’t split them on their first round matches. While I think Jennings is good for the win, his price doesn’t scream value when Cullen is a threat. However, I think we’re going to get a lot of maximums in this match, and we’ll get a lot of legs, so the 180s line looks good to me. The line is 9.5, but I think we’ll get double figures, as they hit 9 between them in matches that went 4 sets each. So we could get 6 sets, or 7 sets, which would be enough to get us well over the line.
Over 9.5 180s in Jennings Vs Cullen match: 11/10 @
Recommend: 2 units.
Geert de Vos (14) Vs Scott Waites (3).
There’s nothing to say about Scott Waites’ performance other than it was exceptional for the First Round, scoring 5 maximums and averaging over 90.15. He was solid, scored heavily on most visits, and never looked in danger against Willy van de Wiel. He’ll be confident of beating Geert de Vos, considering De Vos didn’t look so convincing in his 3-2 win over Tony Eccles. But De Vos averaged 88.68 and hit 3 180s. Waites’ highest checkout was 40, De Vos hit a 136. I think Waites will be a comfortable winner here, but the bookies do, too. The market I like is the highest checkout market, as De Vos has them in his locker, and we know Waites does, even if he didn’t need them in the first round. The line is 122.5, and I think if De Vos wants to stay in the game, he’ll need of big ones.
Highest checkout in Waites Vs De Vos match over 122.5: 5/6 @ 888sport.
Recommend: 2 units.
Jimmy Hendriks Vs Richie George (15).
You’ve been hearing all about Jimmy Hendriks’ big win over Martin Adams in the first round, lauding it as a great performance. However, what they fail to mention is that his average was 78.78, and Adams was woeful at times, especially on the doubles. But he showed a lot of bottle in beating Adams, which is important on the Lakeside stage. He only scored 2 180s in 5 sets, but he had a highest checkout of 128 and then 124, so played well enough when it mattered. While Richie George wasn’t great, he was also showed a lot of composure beating the experienced Dave Prins. George hit 3 maximums and a highest checkout of 107. So I think the stats have it quite close. But I can’t see past George here, as not only was his average greater in the first round, but he’s had a good year and now that the nerves have settled, he could be a good thing. Looking at the prices, I’m surprised George isn’t favourite. So I think George is a good value bet, although it could be a close one.
Richie George to beat Jimmy Hendriks 6/5 @ Stan James.
Recommend: 2 units.
And that’s all for the fifth day of the 2013 BDO World Championship. The Second Round finishes tonight, I’m confident we’ll have another very successful night.
