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First up the NFL tonight.
We have the Cleveland Browns -2 vs the Denver Broncos.
Broncos are 3-3-0 in the AFC West with 3 losses in a row. Browns are 3-3-0 i n the AFC North with 2 losses in a row.
I said when Broncos were 3-0 you couldn’t really rate them because of who they had beat. Now they are being found out.
Browns have played two tough teams lately. They beat the Vikings though.
The big issue is of course Case Keenum is playing as opposed to Baker. Then you also have injuries to Chubb and Hunt. On top of that OBJ is questionable. Landry may be back.
Honestly, this one is probably skippable. If Landry is back I would say bet the over on his receptions which will likely be 3.5 or 4.5. No lines available for that yet but you can bet that prop at BetOnline.
Welcome to another edition of NHL Quick Bets, where I go through each game and give some quick thoughts on it.
We’ve got a busy Thursday, with ten games on the board.
Should be a great day of hockey. Just finished off a 1-0 day yesterday over at BetNHL.ca – 2-0 if you followed the Flyers bet we made but couldn’t advise.
Here are my thoughts on each game:
Jets vs Ducks: Jets seem to be heavily favoured primarily due to name value and pre-season expectations. Ducks beat them 4-1 in the season opener. Jets are a bit all over the place in the advanced metrics – doing well in Corsi, but very bad in xG. The story of the Ducks though is xGA/60 which is 3.38. Basically, when you’re betting them, you’re relying on goaltending. If Gibson is in the net, I think a play at 2.70 odds is marginally okay.
Predators vs Rangers: I just find it hard to rate the Rangers so far this season. They have relied on solid goaltending. This will be a tight one but I like the Preds to get the win and feel there is value on them.
Blackhawks vs Canucks: Both teams are dumpster fires right now. I lean Blackhawks to get a win just because – but at that price, I can’t advise it.
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Coyotes vs Oilers: Tricky first road game for the Oilers, who have had some tight games so far this season. I don’t feel they should be such heavy favourites but I also can’t advise betting the other side. In saying that with the way Oilers screw it up so randomly – betting at above 2.50 odds against them every time is likely long-term profitable.
Jackets vs Islanders: Jackets coming off that thumping by the Red Wings. Islanders just got their first win over the Blackhawks. Lee should be back for them. Islanders probably win but I haven’t seen enough from them this season to say that with any level of confidence. This would be a no-bet for me.
Canadiens vs Hurricanes: With the way the Habs are right now you just gotta bet against them. Canes price incl OT/SO is fine but I’d personally take in Regulation.
Devils vs Capitals: I think Caps win but not worth it at that price.
Panthers vs Avalanche: Tight one odds wise. Based on results so far, I lean Panthers. But Landeskog back tonight for the Avs. McKinnon back too of course. Over/Under is 6.5 which is too high. No play for me.
Senators vs Sharks: Sens have had the more impressive results to open the season. I lean Sharks but not enough data on either team to really back with any confidence.
Red Wings vs Flames: By the numbers, Red Wings are solid value against the Flames. But even as underdogs it’s hard to back them. Looking at the advanced metric data, makes it even more confusing. Red Wings have best xG, worst CF, Flames have best CF etc. Basically, an easy one for me to skip due to such conflicting data.
So in summary:
– Ducks is a marginal play if Gibson is in net.
– Value on the Preds to win.
– I can’t really advise the Coyotes but I do think that is an +EV bet at 2.70 odds.
– Hurricanes in regulation.
