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An 0-1 record last night.
This weekend has just been brutal. There has been some bad luck and some bad picks. I’ve never claimed to be the top NBA expert or anything like that, but this run has just been cruel. Excited to put that weekend and 2018 behind me. We are due for some positive luck and have had a lot of coinflip wins go against us. Looking forward to a bright and profitable 2019.
On my end, I made a few tweaks to my system. I simplified it a bit and put a greater focus on home court advantage. I felt like I’ve been doing too many road teams thus far. Home teams are 329-212 this season and 287-248 against the spread. There is money in the home teams.
Let’s take a look at today’s games and see what we have.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Indiana Pacers: Really like the Pacers to win here, but I just can’t find the -13. Nine points seems doable, but with Victor Oladipo listed as probable I just can’t justify the double digits.
Orlando Magic vs. Charlotte Hornets: I’m staying away from this road team right now, but this is another line that seems way too high. Orlando is coming off of a couple strong wins and they are just getting too many points here. +7.5 is a ton for these two teams and they have an 8-3 ATS record as a road dog.
Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns: The Warriors have been one of the worst against the spread teams this year at 15-22. They are always a huge favorite even when their play doesn’t deserve it. They didn’t really seem to enjoy playing on Christmas Day and I wonder if they are going to have the same reaction to playing on New Year’s Eve. I’m not betting against Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry and a revitalized Klay Thompson, especially with Devin Booker listed as questionable, but I just don’t trust this team with a big spread on the road.
Boston Celtics vs. San Antonio Spurs Betting Tips:
This should be a close one, but I think the Spurs are definitely worth a bet here. The Spurs are a tough home team at 14-5 and for some strange reason they are getting points here.
Boston is 3-4 over their past seven games and this is the final game of a road trip. The Celtics have been decent on the road with a 10-9 record, 8-11 against the spread. They’ve been playing a bit better of late, but this is still a tough match-up.
San Antonio has been great at home, 13-6 against the spread, and are playing some of their best basketball of the season with a 9-3 record over their past twelve. Take the points here.
https://www.Bovada.lvBet San Antonio +1.5
Houston Rockets vs. Memphis Grizzlies Betting Tips:
This is my favorite play of the night. The Rockets have been playing some great basketball since losing Chris Paul and are on a 9-1 run overall. They’ve only failed to score under 100 once in the entire run and James Harden has been simply amazing, making his case for MVP once again.
Memphis? Not so much. The books are giving them a lot of credit and thinking they’ll force the Rockets to play their game, but I just don’t see it. This is going to be another 110+ performance for Houston and this is the easiest over of the year.
https://www.Bovada.lvBet Rockets/Grizzlies Over 200
