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Written by Graeme
Welcome to Matchday 4 of the EPL season, and the second week of betting tips due to my trip to the UK.
Unfortunately the first week was a losing week of 2.5u. We had two BTTs bets and neither came in (that Palace/Arsenal one was killer), and then Liverpool-Liverpool and well, Liverpool are just hilariously messed up right now.
I did manage to get success in Draftkings. Off the $20 entry, it was a $40 return so that was a nice sign. I haven’t did it since.
Let’s look at Saturdays games and see if, now we have some data, we can get back on track. As always I’ll analyze every game and give thoughts for the 3pm kickoffs for Draftkings etc.
Confidence is 0.5u/1u/2u.
Southampton vs Man Utd:
Man Utd struggled hard but came in strong against Liverpool. The Old Trafford crowd really helped them in that one. Southampton have been good at scoring the goals this season – especially Che Adams. If this one was at Old Trafford I’d be concerned about Man Utd going from strength to strength. Last weeks was a big one to build on. But I think Southampton will be competitive here.
Alas, the goals markets are what I was looking to back and at 1.57 for BTTS, and 1.61 for over 2.5 goals – not a fan of those. Let’s see if we can chip that into a double with a later game.
Brentford vs Everton:
Brighton vs Leeds:
Both teams are impressively unbeaten at this point of the season. Brighton also have two clean sheets with only the goal conceded against Man Utd. Leeds coming off that huge 3-0 thumping of Chelsea.
Brighton have looked really good this season and they should be 100% record. They had a lot of chances against Newcastle and couldn’t convert them but had a 1.61 xG.
Leeds are no pushover of course. I really want to back Brighton here, but 1.92 odds just isn’t enough for me. Leeds have been good at converting their chances.
Chelsea vs Leicester:
After a solid start, Chelsea had that tough 2-2 draw at Spurs then the Leeds thumping. They come in here against Leicester who have just the lone point. I guess Draftkings wise you could consider James Maddison from Leicester. I’ll probably pass on him though.
Chelsea really seem like a transitional team at the moment, and 1.40 odds seems almost laughable. I’d have them 1.70 at best. In saying that I don’t feel confident backing against them. Both Teams to Score seems like a decent enough play based on Leicesters performance this season. I don’t feel confident enough to back it though as I don’t feel confident in Leicester, who have an xG of just 1.39 this season. Chelsea don’t seem sound defensively but I feel they play cautiously here and we don’t see the goals many are expecting.
Liverpool vs Bournemouth:
I mean you aren’t backing Liverpool at 1.09 odds but you’re not exactly betting against them are you? They have the injury problems but they still have the depth.
I’m going to throw Over 1.5 Goals into the aforementioned double with Both Teams to Score in Southampton vs Man Utd. But hold on as let’s go one step further….
Draftkings wise probably fine to roll the dice on Liverpool offense at least.
Man City vs Crystal Palace:
The Palace offense came alive last week finally. Going up against City who had that banger of a game against Newcastle.
I’m going with City as part of the treble to win. So that’s over 1.5 in the Liverpool game, BTTS in Southampton vs Man Utd, and then City to win brings it to 2.01 odds. 0.5u bet.
City are a team I’d be looking to back offensively in Draftkings.
Arsenal vs Fulham:
If you followed me at BetSoccer.ca you’d know I absolutely hated betting anything involving Arsenal. They’re killing it at the moment and going up against an unbeaten Fulham team.
No bet in this one. I half like the draw, but I just feel Arsenal have the confidence at the moment and that will really help their game.
That’s it for me. Only the two 0.5u bets right now. Still treading the waters as the last two weekends, I had to rely on highlights packages as opposed to being able to watch practically every game.
