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NBA betting tips for January 23rd, 2024.
2-0 last night on Patreon.
W Cavs -2
W Celtics/Mavs Under 240
That’s four straight wins and a 7-2 run over our last four days. Not bad. Let’s keep it going.
I was thrilled with the addition I made to the system yesterday so I did a little more work and added some rest stats into the formula.
Rest is the most important factor when betting games in my opinion. I write “second half of a back-to-back” and “third game in four nights” quite a bit in my tips. That stuff is important so I took things one step further and added stats for those games.
Let’s look at tonight’s Knicks/Nets game for an example.
- Knicks with two days rest: 122.2 Offensive Rating / 114.5 Defensive Rating
- Nets with one-day rest: 117.2 Offensive Rating / 117.5 Defensive Rating
Brooklyn plays close to their baseline with one-day rest, but the Knicks offense gets a boost of 4-5 points with the extra rest.
I feel like this will help to quantify better how a team plays in these situations and I’m excited about it.
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New York Knicks at Brooklyn Nets Betting Tips:
As mentioned above, the Knicks have the rest advantage here. They’re also a much better team.
Brooklyn has lost ten of their last twelve games and I have them clearly in the bottom of the league. The Knicks have won nine of their last twelve games.
The Knicks defense has been amazing over this stretch with a 106.5 Defensive Rating, second-best in the NBA. Brooklyn has been bottom-ten in Offensive and Defensive Rating.
This is a home game for the Nets, but would we be surprised if the opposite ends up being true? I won’t. Either way, Knicks win.
Knicks -4
Portland Trail Blazers at Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Tips:
One of the worst teams in the league versus one of the best. How do you think it will go?
Throw in the Thunder have had three days of rest coming into this one, they are at home, and they have killed bad teams this season.
OKC is 11-1 against teams in the bottom ten with a huge point differential. Portland is just 1-8 against top-ten teams on the road with multiple blowouts.
This is one game I’m not afraid of the big number.
Thunder -13.5
Los Angeles Lakers at Los Angeles Clippers Betting Tips:
No bet here, but this is my next mountain to climb – statistically accounting for injuries.
The Lakers will play without LeBron James tonight so I don’t like them, but I want to figure out how to account for that. He is one of the biggest one-man factors for any team.
This spread went from -6.5 to -9.5 with the news of the injury. LeBron’s been worth +6.3 points per 100 possessions this season, most of that on the defensive end where his on/off have him at almost -5 points per 100 possessions.
So we take one of those away, but here’s where it gets interesting – D’Angelo Russell has also been worth +6 this season. How much of that has to do with him and how much is playing beside LeBron? I think we know the answer there.
Jokic is the MVP of this stat as he is worth +23 points per 100 possessions this season. If they play without him, should we knock them -23? -11.5? Seems like a lot. The one game they played without him this season went from a -3 to a -11 with the news. I should note they were also without Murray.
Anyway, back to this game as I’m still working to figure out how to deal with injuries from a numbers perspective.
I’m not betting on this one, but my current thinking is the best way to go would be the Clippers team over 121.5.
The Lakers defense relies on LeBron quite a bit while his likely replacement, Austin Reaves, is one of their worst defensive players. The Clippers have the best Offensive Rating in the league over their last fifteen games.
My system, currently accounting for LeBron in the lineup, has the Clippers team total at 119. The lack of LBJ should be worth at least a three. The sportsbooks think so.
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