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MLB betting tips for July 11th, 2022.
Classic Monday off day for a lot of teams with just ten games on the schedule.
Four tips for tonight on Patreon, two are below.
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Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins Betting Tips:
PIT – Mitch Keller 5.21 ERA/4.16 FIP
MIA – Trevor Rogers 5.57 ERA/4.66 FIP
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians Betting Tips:
CHW – Lance Lynn 5.33 ERA/4.10 FIP
CLE – Cal Quantrill 3.86 ERA/4.56 FIP
The White Sox offense has been getting better and better against righties this season and I like them to continue to do so today. Quantrill is low strikeouts and he’s struggling a bit with a 4.50 ERA/5.50 FIP over his past five starts. The bullpen behind him has really struggled of late with a 145 FIP- over the past two weeks.
Lynn has been the opposite of late with a 5.33 ERA/4.10 FIP over his past five. A low left on base and high HR/FB rate has cost him. Those are things we can account to luck most often. The Guardians have a 107 wRC+ against righties this season, but come in cold with an 89 wRC+ over the past two weeks. The bullpen behind him has been very good.
I originally had this as an over pick, but it’s too close and reliant on the weather. The White Sox look like the much better bet with the state of Cleveland’s pitching. Winds blowing out to right center at 11MPH with hot temperatures should help.
White Sox Moneyline (-109)
Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips:
PHI – Aaron Nola 3.15 ERA/2.91 FIP
STL – Miles Mikolas 2.72 ERA/3.65 FIP
This tip is all about Aaron Nola. He’s been dealing of late with a 2.45 ERA/2.31 FIP over his past five starts. The Cardinals have a 102 wRC+ against righties this season and an 89 wRC+ over the past two weeks so they are nothing he shouldn’t be able to handle. The bullpen behind him has been very good of late.
Mikolas has been solid, but that FIP is going to catch-up eventually. Over his past five starts he has 2.23 ERA/4.12 FIP with a .178 BABIP. I said that sometimes BABIP isn’t luck, but when it’s that low – it’s luck. The Phillies have hit the ball well lately with a 110 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
Hot with winds blowing out here. That helps Phillies.
Phillies Moneyline (-118)
New York Mets at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:
NYM – Max Scherzer 2.26 ERA/2.62 FIP
ATL – Max Fried 2.52 EA/2.50 FIP
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