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Five MLB System picks for July 16th, 2021.
I have to admit that the All-Star break kind of snuck up on me. I logged on to do my tips on Monday and saw there were no games. It’s always nice to get that little break, but by Wednesday I was ready for the games to return and start making some tips.
I was going to bet the American League for the All-Star game, but I thought there is no way they are going to win this thing eight times in a row. I guess I cost myself there.
I’ll also be back posting NBA Finals tips. I had to run some errands on Wednesday which lead to me not being home in time to get the tips up. I hate to rub it in because I didn’t share it with you all, but I did make some money on that one thanks to Khris Middleton.
I’ll try to share a few like that tomorrow.
Let’s get to today’s tips.
Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies Game 1 Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | 88 | 66 | 90 | 79 | 86 | 2 | 93 | 8 |
| PHI | 98 | 109 | 95 | 95 | 16 | 105 | 12 | |
| Matt Moore | 147 | 171 | 69 | 127 | 105 | 21 | 101 | 14 |
| MIA | 84 | 115 | 86 | 89 | 23 | 85 | 27 |
I don’t normally mess with doubleheaders, but this one just jumped off the page for me. The Marlins are sending a good starter to the mound and they have a good bullpen. The Phillies are doing none of those things.
Matt Moore has been very hittable over his career and currently sits with 5.40 ERA/6.23 FIP. He has big walk and homerun rates, and he should make the Marlins look good here. The Phillies bullpen is very hittable as well.
Pick: Bet Marlins Moneyline
Canada: Best Odds: 1.79 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -122 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.83 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/16 12:53:05 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Rodriguez | 87 | 110 | 114 | 62 | 93 | 7 | 103 | 17 |
| NYY | 109 | 103 | 124 | 100 | 13 | 109 | 10 | |
| Domingo German | 107 | 140 | 93 | 63 | 86 | 2 | 80 | 3 |
| BOS | 107 | 98 | 87 | 104 | 8 | 111 | 9 |
Not sure if this game is happening or not. Last night’s was cancelled due to six players on the Yankees testing positive for COVID-19.
This game was a borderline pick, but with the COVID news I really have to go with the Red Sox. No Aaron Judge or Gio Urshela is a big hit on the Yankees offense and that should definitely be a boon to Eduardo Rodriguez.
Sometimes you have to be opportunistic in this world. This is one of those times.
UPDATE: There is some confusion on who is starting. If it is Domingo German, do the bet. If it is Jordan Montgomery, skip it.
UPDATE 2: Looks like Domingo German for the Yankees and Eduardo Rodriguez for the Red Sox. The 5 Inning Moneyline is a good bet with these two.
FINAL UPDATE: What the hell? I looked two hours ago and it said German, but now the starter is Jordan Montgomery. Skip this bet.
Pick: Bet Red Sox Moneyline First 5 Innings
Canada: Best Odds: 1.95 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -110 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.95 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/16 12:53:05 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Houser | 111 | 98 | 80 | 113 | 102 | 17 | 94 | 9 |
| CIN | 107 | 102 | 95 | 101 | 10 | 96 | 21 | |
| Tyler Mahle | 85 | 97 | 124 | 96 | 112 | 27 | 99 | 13 |
| MIL | 101 | 114 | 108 | 90 | 20 | 99 | 19 |
The Reds have hit righties well this season and that should continue here tonight. Houser has been more lucky than good on the season with a 3.74 ERA/4.60 FIP. The Reds are a very good homerun hitting team and playing at home in a homerun hitting ballpark. I like their offense to start hot.
Milwaukee’s offense has just an 85 wRC+ on the season against righties. They’ve been creeping towards respectability over the past month, but they still have a ton of holes in their lineup. Tyler Mahle has a huge strikeout rate and a 3.68 ERA/3.65 FIP on the season. He should exploit those holes early.
Pick: Bet Reds -0.5 First 5 Innings
Canada: Best Odds: 1.95 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -104 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.95 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/16 12:53:05 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Wacha | 113 | 123 | 88 | 76 | 87 | 4 | 76 | 1 |
| ATL | 117 | 110 | 105 | 100 | 13 | 103 | 15 | |
| Charlie Morton | 83 | 70 | 116 | 88 | 103 | 19 | 97 | 10 |
| TBR | 104 | 114 | 114 | 101 | 10 | 100 | 17 |
Charlie Morton going against his former team is a good story to lead with, but this one is all about the Braves offense against Michael Wacha.
Wacha has a 4.87 ERA/4.63 FIP on the season and has really struggled with the homerun. The Braves are one of the best homerun hitting teams in the game. The loss of Acuna stinks, but this team can still hit them and I think they hit them today.
Pick: Bet Braves -0.5 First 5 Innings
Canada: Best Odds: 1.92 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -108 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.92 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/16 12:53:05 PM EST but are subject to change.)
San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Gausman | 64 | 54 | 128 | 76 | 100 | 13 | 80 | 3 |
| STL | 89 | 96 | 85 | 88 | 25 | 80 | 28 | |
| Adam Wainwright | 98 | 95 | 95 | 78 | 106 | 23 | 120 | 24 |
| SFG | 126 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 4 | 125 | 1 |
This Giants offense is just on a tear. Over the past 30 days, they have a 125 wRC+ which is the best in all of baseball. They face a a very average pitcher in Adam Wainwright and get to face a very bad bullpen behind him. The good times, they will roll.
Kevin Gausman has been excellent this season with a 1.73 ERA/2.56 FIP and a huge strikeout rate. The Cardinals offense has just an 86 wRC+ against righties on the season and an 80 wRC+ over the past 30 days, one of the three worst in baseball. They stink.
Pick: Bet Giants Moneyline
Canada: Best Odds: 1.70 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -131 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.76 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/16 12:53:05 PM EST but are subject to change.)
