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MLB betting tips for July 22nd, 2024.
3-0 last time. 177-125 this season.
W Mets -0.5 First 5 Innings (-112)
W Royals -1.5 (-125)
W Red Sox/Dodgers Over 9 Runs (-120)
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Let’s keep the good times rolling with three bets today.
All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
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Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees Betting Tips:
TBR – Zack Littell
NYY – Carlos Rodon
I am scratching my head at the Yankees being such a big favorite here.
They are a great offense and great at home, but Rodon has not looked good. His last two starts only went four innings, and the five before that saw him allow at least three runs. He’s allowed nine home runs over his last five starts.
Tampa Bay’s offense is very good against lefties with a 118 wRC+, and they have a 121 wRC+ over the past two weeks. This is a team that is making a move right now and I think they come to play today.
That said, the Yankees are very good. They have a 120 wRC+ against righties, a 116 wRC+ at home, and they have been pretty steady with a 110 wRC+ overall.
I like Littell, but this is a tough offense and a tough place to play.
The over is the play here. I went back and forth between the full game and F5 and decided on the F5 as it’s just a few decimal points better. I won’t be surprised if both hit.
Rays/Yankees Over 4.5 Runs First 5 Innings (-112)
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New York Mets at Miami Marlins Betting Tips:
NYM – David Peterson
MIA – Yonny Chirinos
Chirinos has made five starts and has a 5.76 ERA/5.39 FIP. He’s allowed at least three runs in each of his past three starts and is coming off a 7-run, 4-walk, and 3-homer performance.
The Mets offense has been amazing with a 127 wRC+ over the past two weeks and a 125 wRC+ over the past month.
Peterson is about average, but the Marlin offense is the dirt worst with a 72 wRC+ against lefties.
Mets -0.5 First 5 Innings (-110)
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Boston Red Sox at Colorado Rockies Betting Tips:
BOS – Tanner Houck
COL – Austin Gomber
The Red Sox offense is one of the best, with a 111 wRC+ over the past thirty days and a 131 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
Gomber is having a decent season for a Rockies pitcher with a 4.61 ERA/4.91 FIP, but there are a lot of reasons to think that will go up. That ERA is almost a full run lower than the last two seasons, and the rest of the season projections expect him to be worse going forward. He has low strikeouts with a high home run rate. He has a 3.54 ERA/5.12 FIP at home this year so bad times are coming. Why not today?
Throw in a bad bullpen and the best hitter’s park in the game, and I love this Red Sox team over.
Red Sox Over 5.5 Runs (-121)
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