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MLB tips for July 23rd, 2022.
3-2-1 (contact) last night.
The Red Sox were the big story of the day as they lost 28-5. We had the right side and the over on that one. It was the System’s highest team total of the day for Toronto so it always feels good when that is what happens.
The funny thing about that game is I know it’s going to completely break the Red Sox in the System for the next little bit. The team FIP for that one was 10.34.
Our losses were the Cardinals (should’ve never bet at that price) and the Giants/Dodgers over. That one hurt in the 9th with runners on second and third with one out. A single would’ve gotten at least a push, but that hit never came.
Six tips for tonight on Patreon, four are below.
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Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:
TOR – Alek Manoah 2.28 ERA/3.34 FIP
BOS – Kutter Crawford 4.50 ERA/3.73 FIP
The Jays look good once again here for much of the same reasons as yesterday. The Jays kill righties, they have the better pitcher, the Boston offense isn’t great against them, and the Red Sox offense has been cold of late.
The weather is going to be very similar to yesterday and that worked out pretty well for us. Another over is highly likely.
Jays Moneyline (-141)
Jays/Red Sox Over 9.5 (-104)
Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers Betting Tips:
MIN – Joe Ryan 2.99 ERA/3.99 FIP
DET – Michael Pineda 5.22 ERA/5.84 FIP
St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips:
STL – Steven Matz 3.79 ERA/3.83 FIP
CIN – Mike Minor 6.21 ERA/6.38 FIP
The Reds offense is better against lefties, but they are nowhere near as strong against them as the Cardinals and they don’t have nearly as good of a match-up.
Minor gives up runs and a lot of them are via homerun. The Cardinals have a 115 wRC+ against lefties on the year.
Cardinals -0.5 First 5 Innings (-110)
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Miami Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Tips:
MIA – Max Meyer 4.29 ERA/4.22 FIP (Projected)
PIT – Jose Quintana 3.99 ERA/3.33 FIP
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San Diego Padres at New York Mets Betting Tips:
SDP – Blake Snell 5.22 ERA/3.70 FIP
NYM – Chris Bassitt 3.79 ERA/3.83 FIP
A big weather bet here as winds will be out to left at 10 MPH on a hot day.
I like the Mets offense better as they can hit lefties and Snell has blow-up potential. His ERA being so much higher has a lot to do with his walks being so high at 5.58 BB/9. You can’t do that and expect good things to happen. He could get an early hook which puts a lot of pressure on the bullpen.
Bassit is not a shutout pitcher. He’s allowed at least two runs in five of his past seven. The Padres offense should be able to help towards this number.
Padres/Mets Over 7.5 (-116)
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