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MLB betting tips for July 26th, 2024.
2-0 last night. 186-129 this season.
W Dodgers First 5 Innings Moneyline (-132)
W Athletics/Angels Over 5 Runs First 5 Innings (-115)
A short slate, but a couple of winning bets to add to the total.
Today is Friday which means new series and a full slate. It also means that today’s Patreon post is completely free!
Last weekend was a great one. Let’s make this a great one too.
I have four bets today plus total bases props.
All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
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San Diego Padres at Baltimore Orioles Betting Tips:
SDP – Adam Mazur
BAL – Grayson Rodriguez
Mazur is one of the more hittable starters out there right now. In his seven starts, he has a 7.84 ERA/5.92 FIP with a huge walk rate, low strikeouts, and a .302 batting average against.
You put stats like that up against this Orioles offense on the road and bad things will happen to him. Good things for the Orioles though.
The Padres hit righties well, but I think Grayson Rodriguez can keep them quiet enough. He has a 3.83 ERA/3.55 FIP on the season with a huge strikeout rate.
Orioles -0.5 First 5 Innings (-138)
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Atlanta Braves at New York Mets Betting Tips:
ATL – Charlie Morton
NYM – Kodai Senga
Another elite pitcher is returning from injury so let’s give it another shot.
Senga was quite good before going down with injury last season and the projections are high on him. I might have had some hesitation here if the Braves were in better form, but they are struggling right now. They have an 88 wRC+ on the road, an 84 wRC+ over the past month, and an 81 wRC+ over the past two weeks. Injuries have beaten them down and I think that’ll help us here.
Morton has been very good, but his match-up is just about the opposite. The Mets have a 123 wRC+ over the past thirty days and a 129 wRC+ over the past two weeks. They also have a 111 wRC+ against righties. This is a team that is just clicking right now and I think they get out ahead early.
Mets First 5 Innings Moneyline (-135)
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:
NYY – Nestor Cortes
BOS – Brayan Bello
This is my top run-scoring game of the day so naturally I’m going over. I have both teams over five runs, closer to six than five, and they are the #2 and #3 offenses of the day in my projections.
Cortes has struggled with 5 or more runs allowed in his last two starts, and 3+ runs in four of his past five.
Bello has looked better lately, but Fenway has not been kind to him with a 6.20 ERA/4.92 FIP in home starts.
Additionally, both bullpens are in a bad spot right now. Over the last two weeks, the Red Sox have a 6.30 ERA/5.94 FIP and the Yankees have a 3.73 ERA/5.54 FIP.
Oh, and both offenses are on fire right now. The Yankees have a 135 wRC+ over the last two weeks and the Red Sox have a 128 wRC+ over the same.
Yankees/Red Sox Over 9.5 Runs (-105)
Chicago Cubs at Kansas City Royals Betting Tips:
CHC – Kyle Hendricks
KCR – Brady Singer
We’ve done well with the Royals offense at home and this looks like another great spot for them.
Kyle Hendricks has a 6.69 ERA/5.43 FIP this season and a 6.11 ERA/6.60 FIP over his last four starts. He doesn’t get strikeouts and gives up home runs, a great target.
The Royals at home have a 110 wRC+ this season and a 111 wRC+ over the past two weeks. Bobby Witt Jr. is about the hottest hitter in the league right now and he should only continue to rake here. The Royals are my top offense of the day.
Royals Over 4.5 Runs (-120)
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Total Bases Props:
Total Bases Props are bet at $5. This prop may be listed as Total Bases (From Hits).
- BOS – Tyler O’Neill Over 1.5 Total Bases (+117)
- NYY – Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases (-122)
- NYY – Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases (-104)
- SFG – Tyler Fitzgerald Over 1.5 Total Bases (+122)
- BAL – Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 Total Bases (-104)
Judge, Henderson, and Soto rank 3rd, 4th, and 5th in total bases this season and are in nice spots to hit.
Tyler Fitzgerald has five home runs this week and a great pitching match-up.
Tyler O’Neil is also in a potentially high-scoring game and has hit this in four of his past five games.
One name missing here is Bobby Witt Jr. who has his number set at 2.5 by the sportsbooks. He’s probably still good at that number but doesn’t pass the rules I’ve set up for this bet.
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