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Four MLB System tips for July 30th, 2021.
3-0 last night!
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corbin Burnes | 31 | 22 | 154 | 50 | 103 | 19 | 117 | 21 |
| ATL | 117 | 109 | 102 | 99 | 15 | 101 | 17 | |
| Touki Toussaint | 61 | 55 | 124 | 43 | 99 | 12 | 86 | 5 |
| MIL | 101 | 113 | 107 | 91 | 20 | 119 | 5 |
The Braves offense is dangerous, but so is Corbin Burnes. He’s one of the best pitchers in the game with a 2.12 ERA/1.35 FIP. He’s as dominant as they comes and has done a great job of limiting homeruns this season. That’s kind of the Braves whole thing so if he can stop that, he can shut them down today. He has a high strikeout rate and the Braves have one to match.
Toussaint has been decent in his two starts, but he is far outperforming his projections. I don’t think he’s this good and I think the Brewers prove it today.
Pick: Bet Brewers -0.5 First 5 Innings Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: -110 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.90 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/30 1:19:16 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Gilbert | 71 | 62 | 121 | 64 | 86 | 2 | 96 | 10 |
| TEX | 101 | 103 | 94 | 84 | 28 | 40 | 30 | |
| Kolby Allard | 103 | 126 | 93 | 57 | 100 | 14 | 97 | 11 |
| SEA | 103 | 113 | 102 | 91 | 20 | 108 | 12 |
Logan Gilbert has been excellent of late and the Rangers have lost 13 of their past 14 games. They traded away Joey Gallo so the offense takes a hit. The Mariners have dominated them in their match-ups this season and actually have something to play for going forward. I think I’d prefer the F5, but we’ll have to wait and see what the lines look like.
Pick: Bet Mariners -0.5 First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: -110 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.90 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/30 1:19:16 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JC Mejia | 124 | 156 | 97 | 97 | 91 | 5 | 98 | 12 |
| CHW | 88 | 100 | 115 | 108 | 3 | 80 | 28 | |
| Lance Lynn | 74 | 68 | 116 | 88 | 93 | 6 | 114 | 20 |
| CLE | 105 | 101 | 89 | 87 | 26 | 81 | 27 |
This one was very close, but I believe in Lance Lynn enough and think the Indians offense is bad enough to go with it.
Cleveland has just an 86 wRC+ against righties on the season while Lynn has a 1.91 ERA/3.15 FIP on the season.
Not a big sample size on Mejia, but he has the walk and homerun numbers we like to target and has been worse on the road. The White Sox offense has a 107 wRC+ for the season against righties.
Pick: Bet White Sox -1.5
USA: Best Odds: -114 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.87 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/30 1:19:16 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonsolin | 100 | 89 | 118 | 158 | 95 | 8 | 106 | 16 |
| ARI | 76 | 104 | 96 | 86 | 27 | 111 | 10 | |
| Zac Gallen | 105 | 104 | 114 | 127 | 116 | 30 | 88 | 6 |
| LAD | 115 | 102 | 110 | 108 | 3 | 98 | 21 |
This is a game that I wanted to bet and had to find the best way to do it. Gonsolin is no lights out pitcher, but the Diamondbacks offense is kind of bad and they recently traded one of their best hitters.
The Dodgers offense is very dangerous and I think they can hit Zac Gallen. He’s struggled with the walk and homerun this season which is the exact wrong thing you want to do against the Dodgers who are near the top of the league in both categories.
Pick: Bet Dodgers -0.5 First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: -120 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.83 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/30 1:19:16 PM EST but are subject to change.)
