Follow @SBTSportBetting [Get Exclusive Tips on our Patreon, Ad-Free]
A 3-1 record last night!
MLB Betting Tips:
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Eovaldi | 60 | 30 | 100 | 50 | 95 | 8 | 109 | 18 |
| TBR | 104 | 112 | 113 | 102 | 9 | 115 | 7 | |
| Ryan Yarbrough | 102 | 103 | 84 | 51 | 85 | 1 | 66 | 1 |
| BOS | 107 | 98 | 89 | 104 | 7 | 100 | 19 |
Eovaldi has been excellent this season with a 3.49 ERA/2.48 FIP. He’s very good at keeping his walks down and limiting homeruns which takes away the things that the Rays do especially well. He’s the best starter on the board today and I like him at this price for the first five.
Ryan Yarbrough is about an average pitcher, but I think the Red Sox will take him deep early.
Pick: Bet Red Sox First 5 Innings Moneyline
Canada: Best Odds: 1.95 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -115 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.89 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/31 12:22:59 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Anderson | 102 | 116 | 85 | 64 | 86 | 2 | 96 | 10 |
| TEX | 101 | 103 | 94 | 84 | 28 | 40 | 30 | |
| Taylor Hearn | 119 | 130 | 106 | 137 | 100 | 14 | 97 | 11 |
| SEA | 103 | 113 | 102 | 91 | 20 | 108 | 12 |
Tyler Anderson makes his Seattle debut here and I expect him to have some success. The Rangers have just an 82 wRC+ against lefties on the season and that number includes Joey Gallo who is no longer with the team. For whatever it’s worth, Anderson has been better on the road this season.
The Rangers will send Taylor Hearn to the mound here. Not the biggest sample size on him, but he’s been hit hard. The Mariners offense has some bright spots with Mitch Haniger, Kyle Seager, and Jared Kelenic hitting well of late.
Pick: Bet Mariners Moneyline
Canada: Best Odds: 1.71 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -135 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.74 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/31 12:22:59 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Triston McKenzie | 121 | 131 | 126 | 188 | 91 | 5 | 98 | 12 |
| CHW | 88 | 100 | 115 | 108 | 3 | 80 | 28 | |
| Dallas Keuchel | 116 | 110 | 61 | 84 | 93 | 6 | 114 | 20 |
| CLE | 105 | 101 | 89 | 87 | 26 | 81 | 27 |
This is a home/road pick. These pitchers have similar numbers in the FIP department, but the splits are big on both sides. Keuchel has been much better at home, McKenzie has been much better on the road.
The White Sox have the much better offense here with a 107 wRC+ against right handers. The Indians don’t have a great offense.
It’s that simple.
Pick: Bet White Sox -0.5 First 5 Innings
Canada: Best Odds: 2.04 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -105 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 2.04 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/31 12:22:59 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Woodruff | 61 | 54 | 128 | 71 | 103 | 19 | 117 | 21 |
| ATL | 117 | 109 | 102 | 99 | 15 | 101 | 17 | |
| Kyle Muller | 76 | 38 | 120 | 150 | 99 | 12 | 86 | 5 |
| MIL | 101 | 113 | 107 | 91 | 20 | 119 | 5 |
The Brewers will once again send a great starter to the mound against the Braves. Last night, the wind was kind of crazy and we saw some big runs put up. I don’t think that will be the case here and Brandon Woodruff should look good. He has a 2.14 ERA/2.60 FIP on the season. The Braves have a 100 wRC+ against righties on the season.
Muller is a pitcher who has performed well, but there are a few red flags. He’s running a low .230 BABIP on the season and has a higher than normal 78.9% left on base percentage. He has a 3.3% HR/FB rate which is far below what you would expect from him. He had a 15.4% HR/FB rate in his nine minor league starts this season. The Brewers offense has been hot of late and I think they can get it for us again here.
Pick: Bet Brewers -0.5 First 5 Innings
Canada: Best Odds: 1.95 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -110 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.95 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/31 12:22:59 PM EST but are subject to change.)
