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Happy Fourth of July to all our American readers out there and everyone in America except for the Mariners bullpen.
I know that sounds harsh, but yesterday I took the Mariners over the Cardinals and they entered the top of the ninth with a 2-0 lead. By the time it was over, the score was 5-2 and a sure win ended up in a sure loss that wasn’t even close. Terrible.
The sports world is waiting with bated breath right now for the decision of one Kawhi Leonard. There was one report that saw him going back to Toronto which actually shifted some futures betting lines. While rumors persist that he will join LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard in Los Angeles.
There is an almost full MLB schedule today. That’s kind of weird to me considering it’s America’s birthday and America’s game. Then again, no Mets on the schedule might be exactly what America asked for.
Let’s get to the tips.
MLB Betting Tips:
Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays: The Red Sox on the season have been a much better road team than home team. They are 25-19 away from Fenway Park and they have a nice opportunity to add to that record here.
Marcus Stroman has been having a decent season with a 3.18 ERA/3.82 FIP on the year. His strikeouts are kind of low and his home numbers are much worse at 3.47 ERA/4.99 FIP. The homeruns have been a problem at home with a 1.88 HR/9 rate. The Red Sox are a very good offense against right handed pitchers with a 112 wRC+.
The Red Sox send Rick Porcello who has a 5.07 ERA/4.41 FIP on the year. While I don’t love him, the Jays offense is far below average and struggles against right handed pitching. Throw in the Red Sox bullpen being much better than the Jays and I’m on Boston here.
Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers: Lance Lynn is really pitching well right now with a 4.00 ERA/2.94 FIP. He’s had some bad BABIP luck, but he gets a lot of groundballs and keeps the ball in the park. He is really due for some positive regression at some point.
The Angels will send Griffin Canning who has been just the opposite. He has a 3.79 ERA/4.62 FIP, but has been riding a low BABIP and high LOB%. This game is going to be really hot and humid which makes me think some of that is going to come back on Canning. I have far more trust in Lynn to handle the elements than Canning and think the Rangers get the win here.
CFL Betting Tips:
Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Montreal Alouettes: These two teams played in Hamilton last week and Hamilton won 41-10. They get the rematch here and the line is only -12.5, why? The Alouettes are not very good while Hamilton is one of the best teams in the league right now with a really explosive offense. I see no reason not to back them here and I think they will explode once again.
