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Four MLB tips for July 7th, 2021.
1-0 in the NBA Finals and 2-1 in MLB last night.
Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | 53 | 48 | 131 | 62 | 109 | 25 | 122 | 22 |
| CHC | 110 | 116 | 94 | 92 | 17 | 86 | 24 | |
| Alec Mills | 102 | 73 | 78 | 88 | 96 | 12 | 150 | 29 |
| PHI | 94 | 110 | 95 | 93 | 16 | 98 | 18 |
The Cubs are in an absolute tailspin right now. I watched some of yesterday’s game and they just looked like a team lost. Tons of errors and just mental mistakes. They aren’t in a good way right now. They managed to score ten runs because the wind was blowing out like crazy, but this wasn’t even remotely close.
Zack Wheeler should continue that trend here. He’s been great this season with a 2.05 ERA/2.29 FIP. His road numbers are solid and I see no issue backing him here today.
Alec Mills is an average pitcher that doesn’t really do anything great. The way the Phillies have hit the last couple days, I see no reason not to back them again tonight.
Pick: Bet Phillies -0.5 First 5 Innings
Canada: Best Odds: 1.91 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: -117 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/07 1:35:23 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Senzatela | 94 | 79 | 65 | 57 | 115 | 29 | 134 | 26 |
| ARI | 75 | 104 | 93 | 85 | 28 | 85 | 26 | |
| Humberto Castellanos | 100 | 67 | 85 | 135 | 118 | 30 | 126 | 23 |
| COL | 81 | 100 | 88 | 79 | 30 | 76 | 30 |
This pick is not a bet on either of these pitchers, but a bet against the offenses. They stink. For the season the Rockies have just a 79 wRC+ which has dropped to 76 over the past two weeks. The Diamondbacks aren’t much better with an 85 wRC+ and just an 80 wRC+ against right handed pitchers.
Both of these pitchers are decent enough that I think they can get through the early going unscathed. It’s kind of a small sample size on Castellanos, but it is what it is. These offenses stink and the over is too high.
Pick: Bet Under 9.5
Canada: Best Odds: 1.85 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -120 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.83 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/07 1:35:23 PM EST but are subject to change.)
St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johan Oviedo | 132 | 111 | 69 | 128 | 105 | 18 | 131 | 24 |
| SFG | 127 | 109 | 108 | 109 | 3 | 109 | 10 | |
| Alex Wood | 98 | 92 | 106 | 87 | 102 | 16 | 81 | 6 |
| STL | 87 | 96 | 87 | 88 | 26 | 88 | 23 |
We took the loss with the Giants yesterday, but we’re going right back to them here. Johan Oviedo is a much juicier match-up than the Giants had yesterday and I expect the offense to show out against him early. He has a 5.14 ERA/5.29 FIP on the season and is going against a very tough offense.
Alex Wood goes for the Giants and he has been much better at home this season. He has a 3.89 ERA/3.88 FIP on the season.
Pick: Bet Giants -0.5 First 5 Innings
Canada: Best Odds: 1.78 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -1.25 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 2.00 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/07 1:35:23 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Corbin | 124 | 152 | 78 | 85 | 98 | 14 | 116 | 20 |
| SDP | 102 | 96 | 109 | 102 | 10 | 125 | 2 | |
| Chris Paddack | 88 | 107 | 102 | 61 | 95 | 11 | 103 | 17 |
| WSN | 94 | 101 | 89 | 98 | 15 | 120 | 5 |
Both of these offenses have been red hot of late, but each struggles against pitchers of this handedness. The Padres have a 96 wRC+ against lefties while the Nationals have a 95 wRC+ against righties.
So it’s going to come down to the pitchers and Chris Paddack looks like the pick here. He is sporting a 4.56 ERA/3.59 FIP so he’s due for some regression. Plus, he’s at home where he has been much better this season.
Patrick Corbin has a 5.56 ERA/5.16 FIP on the season and his road stats are even uglier. He can be hit for homeruns and the Padres are more than capable of hitting them.
Pick: Bet Padres -0.5 First 5 Innings
Canada: Best Odds: 1.83 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -115 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 2.15 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/07 1:35:23 PM EST but are subject to change.)
