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A 2-0 way back on Monday.
The stats are getting better and forming a fuller picture, and when that happens the lines get better. For the past few days, the lines and the system have been very close which means that the system doesn’t see any value. Ideally, we are looking for a game with the odds around -110 that the system sees at -210. The last few days have been games that are priced at -155 being -160, not a lot of value. So posts might be less frequent during certain times because of this. We are trying to pick winners here.
The Bet MLB System does like two games very much today. Let’s get to those tips now.
New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips:
| AWAY | Cardinals | Michael Wacha |
| HOME | Mets | Noah Syndergaard |
Michael Wacha is having a bad season. He has a 5.63 ERA/5.91 FIP with huge walk numbers and a bad HR/9 rate. He’s pitching on the road here which is always tough and his numbers are showing that this Mets offense is going to score some runs today.
He’ll go against Noah Syndergaard who is due for some regression. His strikeout numbers aren’t as big as they once were, but they are still good and he does a great job of keeping walks down. He has a 4.45 ERA/3.48 FIP on the season so he’s due for some good luck at some point. He’s been slightly better in his home starts and the offense he’s facing is below average against righties. I think he has a nice game here.
Bet Mets -138
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies:
| AWAY | Phillies | Aaron Nola |
| HOME | Braves | Sean Newcomb |
Aaron Nola has been much better of late, but his road numbers are absolutely disastrous. He has a 6.75 ERA/6.00 FIP on the road this season with homeruns being a big factor, and this Braves team can really hit them. Over the last thirty days they’ve hit 49 homeruns which is fifth in the league. Also, the Braves offense is number one in baseball over the last two weeks.
Sean Newcomb goes for the Braves and he’s been lucky and good this season. He has a 2.59 ERA/3.29 FIP on the year. The Phils offense has been cold of late with a .735 OPS/89 wRC+. They are good against lefties, but nothing that is truly scaring me off of this one.
The Braves offense is strong enough right now and the Nola road woes worry me enough to go full on for the Braves here.
Bet Braves -111
