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A 1-2 day today.
Won with Slovenia vs Denmark BTTS at 2.10 odds. The Slovenia attack delivered like I hoped they would, with some great chances and finally got the goal. I was going absolutely mental when they scored.
Lost with Netherlands -1. That would have been a nice win at 2.60 odds, and they had plenty of chances. Just one of those days. One of those bets where I still feel it was the right call.
Not so much with England. I took England -1 and sure there was that Harry Kane chance, but they were TERRIBLE. I am stunned at how bad they were. In possession, they were ineffective. Out of possession, they were piss-poor and could barely intercept anything. And their defense is an utter mess. That was horrible, and they are extremely lucky to be out of there with 3 points.
They don’t look like they are going far. Although man, would have been nice to sneak the betting win with Kane there.
Let’s look at the games on the 16th:
Romania vs Ukraine Bets:
Romania qualified from their group by winning it. It was an impressive set of results for them as they won 6 games and drew 4. Couple of close calls like that Switzerland game where they were down 2-0 and pulled it back with two goals in the last few minutes. Disappointing results friendly wise though, with no goals against Bulgaria or Liehctenstein.
Ukraine made it thanks to the Nations League playoffs. To be fair, they had a tough group with England and Italy and still almost ousted Italy in there. They are decent favourites at 1.95 here.
Romania will likely play with a 4-2-3-1 although they easily change their shape like dropping back to a 4-1-4-1 when they don’t have the ball. Their offensive data is very poor just from the qualifying data, not including those aforementioned friendlies. They are likely going to sit back and counter. Probably one of those 28-72% possession style games.
The big question is if Ukraine are able to break them down. We’ll likely see a flexible 4-2-3-1 from them as well.
I’ve got to assume we see the type of gme where Ukraine generally domiante possession. Their defense is sturdy and well organized. They have a lot of pace in attack. And you can look at games like against Iceland and Bosnia to get an idea of how this one will likely play out.
A bit of a concern in that they conceded in those games. The odds on BTTS are 1.90 but I think I’d rather get over 2.00 to back Romania to score. My preferred bet would be under 2.5 goals but 1.66 is too low for me for that one.
I’m going to keep it nice and simple – Ukraine win at 1.95 odds.
Belgium vs Slovakia Bets:
Belgium qualified from Group F, although it wasn’t perfect. 6 wins and 2 draws. Some solid results, but also some tight ones.
Slovakia qualified with a solid 7 wins out of 10 results. Portugal were the only team to beat them, plus a draw to open the tournament were their only blemises.
Belgium are hefty favourites at 1.51 to win. Tedesco has really mixed up their tactics – there’s always a back 4, but the rest is all over the place and it’ll be intersting seeing how they line up. The big change for them is they don’t play possession football as much anymore and are more direct and lively. They are solid in defense and defend quite low.
Slovakia were solid in defense geting here but I mean it’s opponent dependent isn’t it? They ARE pretty good on the counter and can be aggressive with it. But Belgium are generally set up well to cover that sort of thing.
I’d like to back Lukaka as anytime scorer but 2.05 odds for that aren’t too great. And I think if you’re going for that sort of bet and not getting good odds, you want to bet something related to quantity of goals.
Most bets I want to make (ie: Belgium over 1.5 goals) the odds aren’t at or above my minimum 1.70 threshold, so I will go with a bet above 2.00 odds only available on Patreon.
Austria vs France Bets:
France qualified with an almost perfect record. Some really impressive results in there too including that opening 4-0 victory over the Netherlands.
Austria came 2nd in their group after Belgium, and were also very impressive considering Sweden were in the group. They qualified with ease. Some decent friendly results going into this one too.
France are fairly strong favourites at 1.53 odds but the bookies still respect Austria. They are one of the strongest teams in the tournament with some great depth to them. They will get a lot of possession here and they are dangerous with it, creating a lot of chances. They have such an organized defensive base as well.
Austria have a couple of unfortunate injuries going into the Euros. They usually play with a 4-2-3-1, with Baumgartner moving up when out of possession to help press and be ready for the counter. This game will actually work out well for Austria as they love to play direct football, and their high press – assuming they keep doing it here – could cause France problems.
I’m personally going to take a bit of a risk here and go with a play over 2.50 odds only available on Patreon>
