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MLB betting tips for June 17th, 2024.
2-1 last time. 130-85 this season.
W Rays/Braves Over 9 Runs (-115)
W Mariners First 5 Innings Moneyline (-140)
L Dodgers Over 4.5 (-130)
The Dodgers only managing three runs was not how I would’ve envisioned the one loss going down. Still, I’ll take 2-1 every single day of the season.
It’s a hot one out there and that means the ball is going to be flying. Offense has been majorly down this season, but I don’t think we see that being much of a problem today.
MLB bets are +18.47 units this season on Patreon. It’s always a great time to sign-up, but now is a great time with lots of winning baseball and Graeme’s Euros tips.
Four bets today.
All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
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San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips:
SDP – Randy Vasquez
PHI – Cristopher Sanchez
Vasquez has a 4.93 ERA/5.21 FIP this season with a 1.88 HR/9 rate. Today, he faces a tough offense on the road with winds blowing out to center at 11 MPH. Yes, please.
Sanchez has been a real breakout with a 3.07 ERA/2.58 FIP this season, but he’s been even better at home with a 1.95 ERA/1.65 FIP. He has a 67.7% groundball rate in those starts and is yet to allow a homer.
The Padres have hit much worse against lefties this season without a ton of power from that side.
Phillies -0.5 First 5 Innings (-125)
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Detroit Tigers at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:
DET – Reese Olson
ATL – Max Fried
Winds are blowing in here, but it’s still plenty hot and offense should be boosted.
I think that mostly comes from the Braves side today though. Fried has a 3.51 ERA/2.76 FIP in home starts this season while the Tigers have just an 84 wRC+ against lefties this year, and an 82 wRC+ over the last two weeks.
The Braves offense has hit better at home, and Olson has really struggled of late with a 6.85 ERA/4.67 FIP over his last five starts. His last three starts have all seen 5+ runs allowed.
Braves -0.5 First 5 Innings (-135)
San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs Betting Tips:
SFG – Jordan Hicks
CHC – Javier Assad
This is a nice pitching match-up, but this has all the makings of a classic Wrigley Field game. Winds blowing out left-center at 14 MPH and a game time temperature of 90F.
Assad had the hot start, but he’s come down to earth of late with a 5.33 ERA/5.88 FIP over his last five starts. He’s allowed eight home runs all season, but six of those have come in his last five starts. The Giants offense is hot right now. Plus, the Cubs bullpen is not very good.
Hicks is a solid starter, but a 4.18 ERA/4.50 FIP over his last five starts shows that he’s also coming down to earth a bit. His last two starts saw him pitch less than five innings, and he’s allowed five of his six homers this season over his last six starts.
Giants/Cubs Over 10 Runs (-120)
Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies Betting Tips:
LAD – James Paxton
COL – Cal Quantrill
The greatest hitter’s park ever meets fantastic hitting weather and one of the best offenses in the league. Let’s go.
The weather first, 92F and winds blowing out to right-center at 92MPH. That’s fantastic.
Paxton has a 7.04 ERA/5.17 FIP over his last four starts with high walks and low strikeouts. His days of domination are over. The Rockies stink, but they’ve been better against lefties.
Quantrill has had a lot of luck this season with a 3.30 ERA/4.34 FIP. A low BABIP has been a friend to him, but that is unlikely to be the case today. The Dodgers have a 118 wRC+ against righties, and a 129 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
Even if he does find some luck, the bullpen should help the rest of the way as they have been one of the worst in baseball over the past month.
Dodgers/Rockies Over 12 Runs (-121)
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