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MLB System picks for June 1st, 2021.
A 2-0 on the 28th pushed us to 33-22 in May, +8.79 units.
That brings us to 57-55 for the season which is pretty impressive when you consider that we had started 1-11. Take away those first three days of the season and we are 56-45 on the year. At this pace we should be in the black by July.
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease | 3.26 | 91 | 107 | 148 | 82 | 2 | 94 | 11 |
| CLE | 103 | 98 | 86 | 86 | 25 | 91 | 18 | |
| Shane Bieber | 2.94 | 98 | 124 | 66 | 91 | 8 | 83 | 5 |
| CHW | 87 | 121 | 114 | 114 | 2 | 101 | 11 |
Shane Bieber is great, but is he enough to overcome a great offense when his team is likely to not score very many runs? The System says no. The Indians have a very slight advantage when comparing the two starters, but the White Sox offense should succeed later in the game.
Pick: Bet White Sox Moneyline
Best Odds: 2.38 (+138) at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/01 1:59:49 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | 2.97 | 94 | 117 | 87 | 110 | 21 | 116 | 24 |
| CIN | 124 | 92 | 104 | 104 | 9 | 92 | 16 | |
| Sonny Gray | 3.92 | 95 | 113 | 119 | 110 | 21 | 120 | 25 |
| PHI | 85 | 93 | 88 | 88 | 24 | 76 | 27 |
A very similar pick to the above one. Nola is very good, but the Reds have just been crushing the ball this season. They are one of the top homerun hitting teams in the league and are playing at home, a homerun friendly park.
The Phillies offense has just an 85 wRC+ against righties on the season and they have a wRC+ of just 76 over the past two weeks. Throw in the bullpen troubles and I have no issue tipping the Reds here.
Pick: Bet Reds Moneyline
Best Odds: 1.89 (-112) at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/01 1:59:49 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Richards | 3.84 | 88 | 95 | 116 | 89 | 6 | 96 | 14 |
| HOU | 100 | 100 | 117 | 117 | 1 | 115 | 4 | |
| Luis Garcia | 4.27 | 115 | 111 | 166 | 119 | 29 | 143 | 30 |
| BOS | 115 | 82 | 109 | 109 | 5 | 99 | 12 |
Both of these pitchers have been solid this season, but these are two of the best offenses in the league and I can see both of their days being shorter than usual.
Neither bullpen has impressed much this season, but this one is all about the offenses. The Red Sox have a 109 wRC+ on the season against righties. The Astros have a 112 wRC+ against righties. There will be runs.
Pick: Bet Red Sox/Astros Over 8.5
Best Odds: 1.90 (-110) at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/01 1:59:49 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Texas Rangers at Colorado Rockies Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dane Dunning | 3.1 | 79 | 96 | 116 | 96 | 11 | 95 | 12 |
| COL | 80 | 89 | 74 | 74 | 30 | 53 | 30 | |
| German Marquez | 3.93 | 103 | 107 | 93 | 117 | 28 | 129 | 28 |
| TEX | 101 | 95 | 93 | 93 | 17 | 69 | 29 |
This pick isn’t so much a bet on the Rangers as a bet against the Rockies. They stink.
Dunning has been very good this season and he just gets the easiest match-up imaginable. The Rockies have a 65 wRC+ against righties on the season and just a 53 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
Pick: Bet Rangers Moneyline
Best Odds: 1.92 (-108) at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/01 1:59:49 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Los Angeles Angels at San Francisco Giants Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | 4.42 | 123 | 114 | 81 | 115 | 26 | 140 | 29 |
| SFG | 128 | 113 | 104 | 104 | 9 | 115 | 4 | |
| Alex Wood | 3.47 | 96 | 98 | 83 | 123 | 30 | 113 | 22 |
| LAA | 108 | 80 | 101 | 101 | 13 | 94 | 14 |
I know this is a pitcher’s park and these are two solid starters, but seven runs? In this environment? You gotta be joking me.
Both of the bullpens here are not shy about giving up runs and both offenses have hit lefties very well this season. I’d probably bet over at 7.5 or 8. At 7? I’m all over it.
Pick: Bet Angels/Giants Over 7
Best Odds: 1.97 (-103) at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/01 1:59:49 PM EST but are subject to change.)
