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3-0 last night on Patreon.
W Twins Moneyline
W Guardians First 5 Innings Moneyline
W Marlins Over 3.5 Runs
Three bets today. Two more are available on Patreon.
All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
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Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips:
ATL – AJ Smith-Shawver
CIN – Luke Weaver
What a fun game this is with the Braves on an eight-game win streak and the Reds on an eleven-game win streak. It’s looking to be a high scoring one too which is always fun.
As fun as what’s going on in Cincinnati right now is, today should be a callback to Earth. The Braves offense is relentless and in much better form right now. They have a 111 wRC+ against righties, a 128 wRC+ over the past month, and Weaver is the worse starter by any measure. The Braves bullpen is also much better right now and on the season.
The Reds are good enough to win the Central, but this is a World Series contender that I don’t think they can match up with.
Braves Moneyline (-142)
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Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays Betting Tips:
KCR – Zack Greinke
TBR – Zach Eflin
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Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays Betting Tips:
OAK – James Kaprielian
TOR – Chris Bassitt
Feels like it’s been a minute since we laid the runs against the Athletics, but today is a great spot to get back to it. As a starter this season Kaprielian has a 5.85 ERA/5.34 FIP with big walks and homeruns. Toronto has a 110 wRC+ against righties this year and a 107 wRC+ at home. The bullpen behind him, while improved of late, is still one of the worst in baseball.
Bassitt is the wild card here. He’s posted a 4.16 ERA/4.99 FIP this season, but he’s been much better at home with a 2.18 ERA/3.44 FIP. The Athletics offense has just an 85 wRC+ against righties and a 71 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
Jays -1.5 (-147)
Milwaukee Brewers at Cleveland Guardians Betting Tips:
MIL – Wade Miley
CLE – Shane Bieber
No bet here, but this is a case where season stats and recent stats really battle. I personally like the Guardians to win even though it doesn’t meet my thresholds. Why? They have a much better starter and the offenses look like this:
Guardians wRC+ L14: 113
Brewers wRC+ L14: 69
Guardians wRC+ L30: 108
Brewers wRC+ L30: 72
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Los Angeles Angels at Colorado Rockies Betting Tips:
LAA – Patrick Sandoval
COL – Kyle Freeland
The Rockies have a 63 wRC+ against lefties this season. Sandoval isn’t great, but he’s above average with a 50% groundball rate. He can succeed today.
It won’t take much because the Angels should hit. Freeland has a 5.67 ERA/5.42 FIP over his last five starts while the Angels are red hot. They have a 112 wRC+ over the last two weeks and a 115 wRC+ over the past month. They are also one of the higher-scoring F5 teams at 3+ runs.
Angels -0.5 First 5 Innings (-112)
Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres Betting Tips:
WSN – Patrick Corbin
SDP – Joe Musgrove
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