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One NBA betting tip and three MLB System picks for June 25th, 2021.
Atlanta Hawks at Milwaukee Bucks Betting Tips:
We cashed a ticket in game one as the Hawks ended up winning outright. The Bucks were -8.5 for that one, just a ridiculous line if you’ve watched these two teams throughout these playoffs.
Milwaukee definitely had their opportunities to put this one away, but there were a few puzzling lineup choices and they changed their defense strategy on Trae Young in the second half which cost them. That said, this game ultimately came down to a really bad shooting night from Khris Middleton. He shot 6-for-23 and 0-9 on three pointers in this one. If he makes two of those shots, the Bucks are up 1-0 in this series.
My thoughts about this one are the same as game one. I think the Bucks will win because they have the better team, but I do not trust them with a spread of this size.
Pick: Bet Hawks +8
USA: Best Odds: -110 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.90 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/25 1:57:17 PM EST but are subject to change.)
MLB Betting Tips
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Lester | 118 | 125 | 68 | 88 | 95 | 9 | 76 | 3 |
| MIA | 81 | 113 | 86 | 90 | 21 | 93 | 18 | |
| Pablo Lopez | 82 | 74 | 104 | 69 | 88 | 3 | 103 | 18 |
| WSN | 87 | 101 | 87 | 94 | 16 | 105 | 13 |
I always like to pick on Jon Lester when I can. He’s had a great career, but he’s at the end of it now. His strikeout numbers are weak and his homerun numbers are high. He’s the kind of pitcher I love targeting and he’s been much worse on the road this season. The Marlins offense is no great shakes, but I think they can get a couple here.
Pablo Lopez has a solid groundball rate and has done a good job this season with a 2.86 ERA/3.26 FIP. He has performed much better at home on the year. The Nationals offense has just an 86 wRC+ against righties on the season.
Pick: Bet Marlins -0.5 First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: -117 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.85 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/25 1:57:17 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin Canning | 124 | 157 | 102 | 117 | 107 | 21 | 98 | 13 |
| TBR | 102 | 114 | 115 | 100 | 12 | 89 | 20 | |
| Andrew Kittredge | 81 | 42 | 99 | 88 | 88 | 3 | 58 | 1 |
| LAA | 114 | 98 | 86 | 108 | 5 | 132 | 2 |
Kittredge will be the opener followed by Josh Fleming who has a 3.59 ERA/4.21 FIP. Both have performed well and then the bullpen behind them is pretty solid. I think the Angels offense should struggle a bit here from the variety of looks.
Griffin Canning goes for the Angels and he has a 5.07 ERA/5.24 FIP on the year. He struggles with homeruns and walks and the Rays have been very good against righties on the season.
Pick: Bet Rays -0.5 First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: +115 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 2.15 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/25 1:57:17 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yusei Kikuchi | 103 | 116 | 106 | 94 | 89 | 5 | 94 | 12 |
| CHW | 82 | 99 | 118 | 106 | 7 | 82 | 25 | |
| Carlos Rodon | 57 | 59 | 153 | 81 | 85 | 1 | 107 | 20 |
| SEA | 98 | 112 | 98 | 89 | 22 | 109 | 11 |
The Mariners have been on a hot run of late, but they are running into a buzzsaw by the name of Carlos Rodon. He has just been lights out this season with a 1.83 ERA/2.38 FIP. The Mariners offense has just an 88 wRC+ against lefties on the season.
Seattle will send Yusei Kikuchi who is about a league average starter. The bad news for him is he is going against an elite offense against lefties as the Sox have a 126 wRC+ on the season against lefties.
Pick: Bet White Sox -0.5 First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: -138 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.72 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/25 1:57:17 PM EST but are subject to change.)
