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MLB betting tips for June 25th, 2024.
3-0 last time. 146-96 this season.
W Reds Moneyline (-116)
W Dodgers Moneyline (-130)
W Royals -1.5 (-118)
The tips I posted for free on Friday didn’t go all that well with a 1-4 record. Well, on the Patreon we bounced right back with back-to-back undefeated days.
A great couple of days brings our record to +20 units at the halfway point of the season. Still a lot of baseball left to play, but the future is looking bright.
Three bets today.
All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
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Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles Betting Tips:
CLE – Logan Allen
BAL – Cole Irvin
It’ll be hot today, great hitting weather, and Logan Allen has been struggling lately with a 6.27 ERA/7.22 FIP over his last four starts.
The Orioles have lost four straight, but the offense hasn’t been the problem. They have a 122 wRC+ over the past two weeks and a 118 wRC+ against lefties.
Orioles Over 4.5 Runs (-125)
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:
TOR – Kevin Gausman
BOS – Brayan Bello
If you haven’t seen that home run Vlad Guerrero hit last night, you need to check it out. Not just over the Green Monster, but the DraftKings sign too. Amazing, and I’m looking for more fireworks like that today… from the Red Sox.
Gausman has a 3.90 ERA/4.51 FIP this season, a bit down from his projection, and he’s holding a 1.67 HR/9 rate. That is not something you want at this park.
The Red Sox have a 104 wRC+ against righties, but they have elite power. They are also red hot right now with a 132 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
I was going to go with the game over here, but I just don’t trust the Jays night-to-night. The System has the Sox closer to six runs than four.
Red Sox Over 4.5 Runs (-102)
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Colorado Rockies at Houston Astros Betting Tips:
COL – Austin Gomber
HOU – Hunter Brown
It brings me no joy to announce that the Astros are back. They’ve won five straight and seven of their past ten. They should only continue to get better in a very soft match-up today.
Hunter Brown has a 1.45 ERA/2.63 FIP over his last five starts with huge strikeouts, a great groundball rate, and low walks and homers. He pretty much ticks all the boxes and that’s before you look at the Rockies’ 82 wRC+ against righties.
Houston has a 106 wRC+ against lefties and a 129 wRC+ at home. They face Gomber who has a 9.68 ERA/6.77 FIP over his last four starts. I see big things for this offense, and that’s before you count the awful bullpen.
Astros -1.5 (-120)
