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2-0-1 last night on Patreon.
W Jays -0.5 First 5 Innings
PUSH Phillies/Mets Under 5 Runs First 5 Innings
W Red Sox Over 4.5 Runs
A very nice night, especially when you include a 3-0 in the NBA Finals. The only down spot was the push thanks to an unearned run.
Fridays have been great of late and we go big on Fridays. Six tips today on Patreon. Four are below.
All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
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Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips:
MIL – Corbin Burnes
CIN – Brandon Williamson
Corbin Burnes isn’t Corbin Burnes anymore. In fact, he’s closer to Brandon Williamson. Over his last five starts, Burnes has a 3.30 ERA/5.06 FIP. Williamson has a 5.02 ERA/5.31 FIP over his last three. Both struggle with the walk and the homerun.
Today’s weather is going to be in the nineties which is great for hitting in a ballpark that is already great for hitting. Ten runs should be easy to do.
Brewers/Reds Over 10 (-104)
Oakland Athletics at Miami Marlins Betting Tips:
OAK – Shintaro Fujinami/Hogan Harris
MIA – Edward Cabrera
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Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals Betting Tips:
PHI – Zack Wheeler
WSN – Josiah Gray
Wheeler has been excellent this season with a 3.60 ERA/2.68 FIP. He’s been even better, but unluckier, on the road with a 3.68 ERA/1.79 FIP. Big strikeouts, low walks, and low homeruns. The Nats have actually been pretty solid against righties and are hitting well right now, but I think he shuts them down early. You can’t keep a good pitcher down.
Gray isn’t great and he’s been very lucky this season. He has a 3.43 ERA/5.68 FIP at home and a 2.77 ERA/4.51 FIP overall. You can’t walk guys like he does and expect this to keep up. He will pay for it. A bit of a risk here with the Phillies offense being not great of late, but they just have too much talent not to come through eventually. This is as good a match-up as any.
Phillies -0.5 First 5 Innings (-120)
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St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Tips:
STL – Jack Flaherty
PIT – Roansy Contreras
Another really hot one with temps in the nineties. The ball should be flying off the bats here, the Cardinals bats that is. Contreas has a 4.33 ERA/4.54 FIP on the season which isn’t awful, but his last four starts have been disastrous with a 5.64 ERA/6.69 FIP. The Cardinals offense has a 108 wRC+ against righties this season and I think they put up a big number tonight.
Cardinals Over 4.5 Runs (-135)
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Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:
TBR – Tyler Glasnow
BOS – Garrett Whitlock
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Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres Betting Tips:
CHC – Jameson Taillon
SDP – Michael Wacha
It’s starting to feel like the Padres offense is putting it together. A 97 wRC+ over the past two weeks isn’t exactly encouraging, but Soto and Tatis are really getting it going. Taillon is a great target as he’s really struggled with an 8.04 ERA/4.47 FIP. I usually rely on FIP, but an ERA like that is hard to ignore. Bad luck, sure, but he’s consistently getting himself into bad situations with walks and homeruns. Sometimes you get what you deserve. The Cubs bullpen has struggled of late as well with a 111 FIP- over the past two weeks.
The Cubs offense is down of late as well with an 80 wRC+ over the past two weeks. Wacha isn’t the sexiest pitcher around, but a 3.45 ERA/3.55 FIP is something you can proudly take home to Mom. The Padres bullpen has been killing it of late as well with just a 64 FIP- over the past two weeks. This line should be in the -200s.
Padres Moneyline (-153)
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