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2-0 last night. Five straight wins in MLB.
Three tips tonight on Patreon, two are below.
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Bet Horse Racing - +£21,565.98 profit on £25/pt staking. Click for more details.
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Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals Betting Tips:
TOR – Ross Stripling 4.22 ERA/3.30 FIP
KCR – Daniel Lynch 4.81 ERA/4.44 FIP
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New York Mets at San Diego Padres Betting Tips:
NYM – Carlos Carrasco 3.63 ERA/2.93 FIP
SDP – Blake Snell 4.80 ERA/4.07 FIP
This line really surprised me as the System likes the Mets quite a bit here.
Blake Snell has a great reputation, but he’s not been that guy thus far this season. He’s big at strikeouts, but his walks are high and the Mets offense is on fire right now with a 140 wRC+ over the past two weeks. They hit lefties well and could send Snell packing early.
Carrasco has been better than his ERA and the Padres could help make that right as they have just a 86 wRC+ against righties and an 85 wRC+ over the past two weeks. This park is pitcher friendly and I expect him to have a great start here.
The odds on the full game bet are slightly better for some reason which I don’t full get because I have the Mets bullpen as the better of the two across the board. Lower HR rate, higher strikeout rate, better over the past two weeks, and better overall. Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth.
Mets Moneyline (+103)
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Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels Betting Tips:
BOS – Michael Wacha 2.43 ERA/4.12 FIP
LAA – Noah Syndergaard 4.02 ERA/3.91 FIP
Both of these offenses are super dangerous and neither of these pitchers is going to dominate.
Syndergaard has been solid, but he’s not what he was. I thought this number might rebound, but he still has just 6.02 K/9. If he’s not striking everyone out, he can be hit and the Red Sox offense is the best in baseball over the past month.
Wacha has been very lucky with ERA, but he gets a very tough match-up against the Angels who could straighten that out for him. He’s another low strikeouts guy and he has a high HR/9 rate. LA has a 112 wRC+ against righties on the season and some big boppers in the lineup.
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Both of these bullpens are average at best with the Angels being slightly worse. They blew a huge lead yesterday too so they may be taxed and tired.
The System has this game as being very close for winner, but a clear over.
Angels/Red Sox Over 9 Runs (-117)
