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1-1 last night on Patreon.
W Phillies Over 4.5 Runs
L Pirates -0.5 First 5 Innings
Big runs from the Phillies, but the Pirates pulled the classic F5 move of scoring big in the sixth.
I’m toying with the F5 numbers a little bit. I felt the totals were a bit too high and not accounting for how that is usually when you see the pitcher’s best stuff. I am working on a way to look at pitcher’s F5 *only*, but that is a pretty involved process. Like spending a whole day rewriting code.
Instead, we’re going with home/road splits on runs scored and runs allowed over the first five for now. The change is only a few percentage points each way, but that can often be the difference.
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Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees Betting Tips:
CHW – Lucas Giolito
NYY – Clarke Schmidt
The White Sox have been pretty weak against righties this year with just an 81 wRC+. They are not in a good spot right now either with a 79 wRC+ over the past two weeks. Schmidt has been unlucky this year with a 5.01 ERA/3.95 FIP. He has some big strikeouts numbers though and I think those come through for him against this weak offense.
The main part of this one is the Yankees offense though. Giolito has a 5.68 ERA/5.11 FIP on the road this season and the Yankees hit well at home. They have a 117 wRC+ over the past month. I expect most of the damage to be done early, but the White Sox have a big bullpen advantage as well.
Yankees Moneyline (-134)
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Oakland Athletics at Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Tips:
OAK – James Kaprielian
PIT – Mitch Keller
Picking on the Athletics didn’t do us well last night, but this is one of the top plays I’ve seen in a week or so at +3.07 and I’m going right back to it.
Keller has been amazing this season with a 3.25 ERA/2.84 FIP and the Athletics offense is in the mud. 78 wRC+ against righties, 69 wRC+ over the past month, and a 55 wRC+ over the last two weeks. The bullpen behind him is above average with a 90 FIP- this season.
Kaprielian has an 8.12 ERA/5.83 FIP this year so it’s not like he’s going to dominate. The bullpen behind him is the worst in baseball. Swing the bat and good things will happen.
Pirates -1.5 (-135)
Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips:
LAD – Tony Gonsolin
CIN – Luke Weaver
New York Mets at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:
NYM – Carlos Carrasco
ATL – Bryce Elder
Elder has been great this year with a 1.92 ERA/3.42 FIP and I’m done pretending the Mets offense is good. They have just a 101 wRC+ against righties this year with below average power. They have just a 96 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
Carrasco is one of the bottom pitchers going today with a 5.74 ERA/6.09 FIP. He’s had better results over his last two, but the problems have remained. Six homeruns allowed in six starts and a high walk is not encouraging. Braves have been human against righties, but a 106 wRC+ at home and a 104 wRC+ over the past two weeks in this match-up give me a lot of hope.
Braves -0.5 First 5 Innings (-110)
St. Louis Cardinals at Texas Rangers Betting Tips:
STL – Matthew Liberatore
TEX – Dane Dunning
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San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies Betting Tips:
SFG – John Brebbia/Sean Manaea
COL – Dinelson Lamet
Brebbia will be the opener and I expect him to be followed by Manaea. Considering the Rockies have just a 65 wRC+ against lefties this season, that would be the smart move. The Rockies offense is just bad and I don’t trust them to put up runs, even at home. The Giants bullpen has pitcher very well of late as well.
The Giants offense has hit righties very well with a 109 wRC+ and they are hot over the last two weeks with a 114 wRC+. Lamet is a converted reliever who is sitting on a 13.17 ERA/5.33 FIP. I don’t care if it’s 13 innings, that’s bad.
Giants Moneyline (-134)
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