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How it went down:
W Jalen Williams Over 24.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists
The unders I posted also went 3-1. I didn’t bet them, but maybe someone somewhere did and is enjoying that money right now. That’s why I do this.
This is a big night as my system has a ton of plays today. I normally am looking for something that is +3.5 or higher than what the sportsbooks are listing and then I do my deeper research. Yesterday had one. Today, it has eleven.
I’m only using seven of them. Here’s who just missed the cut:
O.G. Anunoby Over 16.5 Points – 70% hit rate over his last ten, but I don’t trust the Raptors distribution from night to night.
Austin Reaves Over 14.5 Points – Another 70% hit rate and coming off a 35-point game, but that hit rate drops quite a bit if both Davis and Russell are in the lineup.
Immanuel Quickley Over 18.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists – See below.
Josh Hart Over 19.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists – Both of these guys have come through of late and get solid minutes, but they are both coming off the bench and it’s hard to take a bench guy without an injury. Hart has hit over 20 in eight straight games. Quickley in four of his past five.
Mike Conley Over 20.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists – Boom or bust. If Edwards is out he becomes a strong maybe.
Finally, here are a couple of unders that I won’t be betting.
Anthony Davis Under 43.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists – Has only hit this in one of his past five games.
Damian Lillard Under 49.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists – Just a huge number. He’s missed it in three of his past five with one other landing at 50. A nice match-up though.
Onto the tips.
Denver Nuggets at Washington Wizards Betting Tips:
You don’t need to make much argument with this guy. Jokic has scored 24 or more in five of his past six games and Washington is on the higher end of points allowed to opposing centers. This number is below Jokic’s season average of 24.7 points per game.
Nikola Jokic Over 23.5 Points
Philadelphia 76ers at Chicago Bulls Betting Tips:
This number is a bit lower than normal on DeMar DeRozan and the reason, I think, is the way the last game went between these teams. DeRozan hit the over, but needed double overtime to do it and the game was kind of low scoring.
That said, I think it just makes it a better value. This team has really needed him to do a lot as they make their run to the playoffs and he’s attempted 20+ shots in four of his last five games. In the only game he didn’t attempt that many he had a 24/5/10 line. He’s also played 38 or more minutes in seven straight games.
He’s on the court with the ball in his hands a lot. Good things will happen.
DeMar DeRozan Over 31.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists
Milwaukee Bucks at San Antonio Spurs Betting Tips:
I truly don’t get this number on Brook Lopez as he has been putting up huge numbers for a long time now. He has gone over this number in six straight games and it hasn’t really been close in any of them. He’s a nightly threat to score 20+ points as he’s attempted 14 or more shots in eight straight games. This is one of the biggest gaps in what my system predicts and what the sportsbooks have that I’ve seen all season. Play of the day, play of the week.
The system also likes Bobby Portis as he’s been putting up great numbers of late. The Bucks will be without Jae Crowder and Meyers Leonard here so that leaves him as the primary backup big. He’s done very well of late with an average of 14.7 points and 8.9 rebounds over his last seven games, going over this amount in five of them. With the Bucks playing San Antonio, he should get a bit more run if the Bucks blow this one out and Giannis sits late.
Finally, the system also likes someone from the Spurs in this one as well. Zach Collins, if he plays, has been huge for this team of late. He’s averaging 22/8/4 over his last four games. He can do this on points alone, but as a center, the rebounds will surely be there. He’ll likely be needed for 30+ minutes with the way the Bucks are constructed.
Brook Lopez Over 25.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists
Bobby Portis Over 19.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists
Zach Collins Over 24.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists
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Atlanta Hawks at Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Tips:
The Hawks have been a pretty weak team against centers this season and Gobert has been playing very well of late. He’s hit the over on this one in seven of his past nine games and five of his past six. I think this will be higher scoring than usual for him, especially if Edwards ends up not playing, while his rebounding should remain consistent.
His frontcourt mate Jaden McDaniels is also worth a look. No Edwards would help him, but he’s been taking a bigger and bigger role of late. He’s scored 18 or more in four of his past five, going over this total in all five.
Rudy Gobert Over 25.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists
Jaden McDaniels Over 19.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists
