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Okay, after a brief break that involved me quitting a toxic workplace, it’s back to business in the NBA.
We were 2-2 last time out with my least favorite player disappointing us by half a point. That kind of thing has happened too much so I decided to work on the system a little bit more.
I have a new algorithm for projecting points which compiles a player’s usage rate (the percentage of team plays used by a player when they are on the floor) and the team’s implied total (the number of points a team is expected to score, according to Vegas lines). I feel this stat works good alongside what I’m currently working with and it has helped to point out some values.
Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards Betting Tips:
Bradley Beal has been in a stretch where he either scores 30+ or in the teens. He’s had 30+ in five of his last ten, 21 in one, and then four with at least 16. So when you see he’s averaging 26.2 over his last ten games, that’s really misleading.
I do like the way he has improved his three-point shooting of late and he has played well against the Raps in his career. His team is fighting for the final playoff spot too so I think he will play. 35+ minutes in four straight is encouraging for his health as well.
All the numbers say he should go over on the points here, but he seems like he’ll either go way over or way under.
Bradley Beal Over 23.5 Points
Philadelphia 76ers at Dallas Mavericks Betting Tips:
Luka and Kyrie get all the headlines, but it’s worth taking a look at Christian Wood tonight. The team traded away a lot to get Kyrie which means his scoring is needed more than ever. He’s averaged 14.6 points since the trade and has posted 14 or more in five of his past seven games. The only two games he went under saw him play 12 and 18 minutes, and he still came close in those games.
The Sixers may be without Embiid which certainly makes things easier down low, but I expect him to get the points tonight regardless.
Christian Wood Over 13.5 Points
Indiana Pacers at San Antonio Spurs Betting Tips:
Myles Turner has scored 24+ in three straight, including a 40-point game, and has 20+ in four of his past five. He’s getting a lot of shot attempts and has been shooting over 40+ from three in his last ten. The Spurs absolutely stink and this game has the highest total on the board. I don’t get why this one is so low.
Myles Turner Over 19.5 Points
Los Angeles Clippers at Golden State Warriors Betting Tips:
The last time these two teams faced, Kawhi Leonard scored 33 points. Over his last five games, he has averaged 29.8 points with three games over 33. Even better, he’s had at least 17 attempts from the field in all of them. He’s not afraid to take on the load and I think he’s finally fully back.
I’m also giving the thumbs up to Draymond Green’s PRA total. He’s been putting up more points than usual lately while continuing to have a high assist total. Last game against the Clippers he had a line of 15/5/7. Big minutes and similar totals should be expected.
This game has a high total, playoff implications, and is on national television. I am expecting good things here.
Kawhi Leonard Over 25.5 Points
Draymond Green Over 23.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists
