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NBA Playoffs and MLB tips for May 12th, 2022. Unlock the entire month on Patreon.
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Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers Betting Tips:
Sometimes an embarrassing loss is a sign that a team’s exit is near. Other times it leads to them getting pissed off and coming out and giving it right back.
I think tonight in Philly it will be the latter. I say this as someone who has been down on the Sixers throughout the playoffs and has picked against them in every round, and as someone who was really mad they didn’t tip against them last time out like they wanted to.
The Miami defense has not been good on the road these playoffs. Small sample size alert, but the Miami defense has a 112.3 Defensive Rating in their road games this playoffs compared to a 100.5 Defensive Rating at home. Usually we talk about good shooting taking place at home, but the defense can change as the series shifts as well. Throw in that they’ve also been bad on offense on the road and it doesn’t bode well for them.
The injuries are starting to show on Embiid, but I think he has one great performance in him tonight to force a game seven. I’d also look for a big game from Tyrese Maxey who has shot 53.6% from three at home in the playoffs.
Sixers -2
Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Tips:
KCR – Jon Heasley 4.57 ERA/4.58 FIP (Projected)
TEX – Taylor Hearn 6.53 ERA/4.43 FIP
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New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox Betting Tips:
NYY – Luis Gil 4.27 ERA/4.47 FIP (Projected)
CHW – Dylan Cease 2.38 ERA/1.98 FIP
A bit of a risk here with Gil making his first start of the season, but I love the match-up for him. He’s a huge strikeout pitcher who struggles with walks, but the White Sox are one of the lowest walking teams in the league right now. Their offense has not been great to start with just an 82 wRC+ against right handed pitching.
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The Yankees offense has been great to start the season and they should pose problems for Cease here. They have hit the ball extremely hard against righties, for the season, and over the past two weeks.
Still, Cease is a very good pitcher and I’d rather have the security of the +0.5 runs than take the moneyline.
Yankees +0.5 First 5 Innings (-110)
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Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Tips:
PHI – Zack Wheeler 4.10 ERA/3.09 FIP
LAD – Tyler Anderson 2.78 ERA/3.26 FIP
