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Five MLB System picks for May 14th, 2021.
2-1 on Wednesday.
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Gausman | 3 | 94 | 106 | 82 | 98 | 11 | 106 | 19 |
| PIT | 83 | 61 | 101 | 93 | 83 | 27 | 69 | 30 |
| Miguel Yajure | 4.87 (Projection) |
125 | 83 | 101 | 101 | 14 | 98 | 14 |
| SFG | 101 | 117 | 112 | 113 | 101 | 9 | 112 | 8 |
The Giants offense has been heating up of late and I really like this match-up against Yajure. He got hit hard in his first start and he looks to have the kind of strikeout/walk numbers that we like to target.
Gausman is nothing to get excited about, but he is against this offense. The Pirates have just a 61 wRC+ over the past two weeks and haven’t been great against righties this season. The Giants are worth a 5-inning bet.
Pick: Bet Giants -0.5
Canada: Best Odds: 1.47 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -140 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.47 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/05/14 12:58:31 PM EST but are subject to change.)
New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Kluber | 3.92 | 112 | 97 | 81 | 82 | 2 | 81 | 1 |
| BAL | 90 | 99 | 87 | 88 | 24 | 99 | 16 | |
| Dean Kremer | 5.22 | 157 | 98 | 133 | 103 | 17 | 101 | 16 |
| NYY | 117 | 99 | 136 | 100 | 12 | 108 | 10 |
Corey Kluber has been solid to start the year with a 3.06 ERA/3.92 FIP. He draws a great match-up here against the Orioles who have just a 79 wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
The Orioles send Dean Kremer who has a 2.08 HR/9 rate early. That is not the kind of numbers you want to have against this Yankees offense. He’s faced the Yankees twice this season and given up nine runs in just 7.1 innings. I don’t see things getting better here today.
Pick: Bet Yankees -0.5 First 5 Innings
Canada: Best Odds: 1.8 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -125 at Bovada – $750 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.55 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/05/14 12:58:31 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Chicago Cubs at Detroit Tigers Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Arrieta | 4.63 | 114 | 83 | 106 | 117 | 29 | 109 | 22 |
| DET | 82 | 83 | 122 | 94 | 82 | 29 | 102 | 14 |
| Tarik Skubal | 8.44 | 161 | 105 | 128 | 118 | 30 | 123 | 28 |
| CHC | 97 | 105 | 115 | 104 | 97 | 14 | 108 | 10 |
Tarik Skubal has a 5.67 ERA/7.88 FIP in seven appearances this season with a 3.33 HR/9 rate. The Cubs have been pretty solid against lefties and I think they will do well against him today.
Arrieta is a pretty average pitcher going against a below average offense. The Tigers have just an 82 wRC+ on the season. I think he’ll do well here.
Pick: Bet Cubs -0.5 First 5 Innings
Canada: Best Odds: 2.15 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
USA: Best Odds: +110 at Bovada – $750 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.80 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/05/14 12:58:31 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Smyly | 7.34 | 155 | 104 | 113 | 112 | 26 | 117 | 25 |
| MIL | 100 | 118 | 93 | 83 | 27 | 78 | 28 | |
| Adrian Houser | 4.08 | 110 | 91 | 104 | 93 | 8 | 94 | 12 |
| ATL | 131 | 105 | 99 | 97 | 14 | 77 | 29 |
Milwaukee is at home here and they have been very good against lefties on the season. It’s a small sample, but Smyly has been hit hard early. He has a 6.12 ERA/7.34 FIP in five starts this season. Walks and homeruns have been a problem, and he’s actually gotten lucky with a high BABIP. The Brewers offense is looking good here.
The Braves are scary as an offense, but they have actually been cold of late with just a 77 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
Pick: Bet Brewers Moneyline
Canada: Best Odds: 1.78 at SportsBetting.ag- 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -128 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.74 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/05/14 12:58:31 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Texas Rangers at Houston Astros Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Benjamin | 5.92 (Projection) |
158 | 75 | 126 | 106 | 20 | 101 | 16 |
| HOU | 107 | 79 | 92 | 118 | 1 | 136 | 1 | |
| Zack Greinke | 4.31 | 119 | 95 | 60 | 105 | 19 | 106 | 19 |
| TEX | 111 | 110 | 94 | 101 | 9 | 113 | 5 |
This is one of the most lopsided match-ups in the system today.
The Astros are killing lefties this season with a 115 wRC+. Wes Benjamin has a career 4.82 ERA/5.03 FIP with a huge walk rate and a low groundball rate. The Astros are dangerous as always and I think they should hit him hard here.
You know what you’re getting with Zack Greinke. I think he does well.
Pick: Bet Astros -0.5 First 5 Innings
Canada: Best Odds: 1.71 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -140 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.43 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/05/14 12:58:31 PM EST but are subject to change.)
