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MLB betting tips for May 17th, 2024.
1-1 last night. 82-56 on the season on Patreon.
L Phillies First 5 Innings Moneyline (-130)
W Astros -1.5 (-104)
The Phillies were down 2-0 after five and then tied it up in the sixth. Classic move.
The Astros won 8-1.
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All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Washington Nationals at Philadephia Phillies Betting Tips:
WSN – Jake Irvin
PHI – Zack Wheeler
The System is very high on Wheeler today, and why shouldn’t it be? He has a 2.53 ERA/2.72 FIP on the season with a huge strikeout rate and a good groundball rate. He’s very hard to hit.
The Nationals offense has been worse on the road and they are a below-average offense against righties with a 92 wRC+.
The Phillies offense has been great with a 114 wRC+ against righties, and a 121 wRC+ over the last two weeks.
Irvin has been solid, but I don’t think I am buying. He has a 3.55 ERA/3.20 FIP on the season. His strikeouts aren’t that impressive and his HR/FB rate is on the low end. I don’t think he finishes the season this good. His ZiPS rest of the season projection has him with a 4.61 ERA/4.52 FIP.
Phillies -0.5 First 5 Innings (-135)
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Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees Betting Tips:
CHW – Mike Clevinger
NYY – Nestor Cortes
The White Sox have been awful, especially against lefties with just a 61 wRC+ against lefties. Nestor Cortes is decent with a 4.02 ERA/3.58 FIP so he’s had some bad luck. The White Sox will probably help with that.
The Yankees offense is awesome with a 127 wRC+ against righties. Juan Soto has truly been a game-changer. It’s crazy that guy has ever been traded, much less twice.
They should feast today against Clevinger. I normally try to avoid small sample sizes, but Clevinger’s first two starts are almost perfectly what I expect from him with a 5.40 ERA/5.37 FIP. He’s not a good pitcher.
The Yankees bullpen is great and the White Sox is not. This should be an easy one.
Yankees -1.5 (-126)
San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:
SDP – Matt Waldron
ATL – Max Fried
Fried has a 3.57 ERA/3.42 FIP this season and faces a Padres offense that has struggled against lefties. They have just an 83 wRC+ against lefties, compared to 120 against righties.
The Braves have a 107 wRC+ against righties which feels low for them. They have a 118 wRC+ at home and a nice match-up so it should go up today.
Waldron has a 5.49 ERA/4.46 FIP this season. He’s a fly ball pitcher with a 1.37 HR/9 rate which could go wrong for him today.
Braves -0.5 First 5 Innings (-140)
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Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Tips:
CIN – Frankie Montas
LAD – James Paxton
Montas has had a rough start to the season, especially on the road where he has a 7.30 ERA/8.55 FIP. He has pitched better of late, but he still very much pitches to contact and this offense is way too dangerous for that.
The Dodgers have a 123 wRC+ against righties and a 132 wRC+ at home this season.
Paxton is a very similar pitcher at this point in his career, but he gets a much softer match-up. The Reds have a 92 wRC+ against lefties and an 80 wRC+ over the last two weeks. As long as they don’t let Elly on the bases to steal every base, I think they can keep them quiet enough.
Dodgers -0.5 First 5 Innings (-112)
