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MLB betting tips for May 20th, 2024.
3-1 last time. 85-57 this season on Patreon.
W Phillies -0.5 First 5 Innings (-135)
W Yankees -1.5 (-126)
L Braves -0.5 First 5 Innings (-140)
W Dodgers -0.5 First 5 Innings (-112)
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All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees Betting Tips:
SEA – Logan Gilbert
NYY – Marcus Stroman
Gilbert has been very good with a 3.07 ERA/3.54 FIP this season, but he has an awful match-up today. The Yankees have a 130 wRC+ against righties this season, play much better at home, and have a 150 wRC+ over the past two weeks. Gilbert is much better at home and has a 1.41 HR/9 rate on the road with a much higher walk rate.
Stroman has a 3.33 ERA/4.96 FIP this season so he’s not the most reliable, but he’s been better at home with a higher strikeout rate. The Mariners strikeout more than anyone and have been about an average offense on the season.
This is mostly about how the Yankees offense is hitting right now, but Stroman should be able to do enough.
Yankees First 5 Innings Moneyline (-125)
Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros Betting Tips:
LAA – Reid Detmers
HOU – Framber Valdez
Yordan has been solid as always thus far with a 2.95 ERA/3.32 FIP. On paper, it looks like he has a tough match-up as the Angels have a 114 wRC+ against lefties, but it doesn’t pass the smell test. The Angels have the second-fewest plate appearances against lefties thus far with a very high BABIP. Just looking at the lineup, it doesn’t feel like a team that should be this good against lefties.
The Astros do. They have a 123 wRC+ against them with good power and a solid walk rate.
Detmers has been downright awful of late with an 8.46 ERA/5.75 FIP over his last five starts, allowing 4 or more earned runs in all of them with seven homers allowed.
Houston’s bullpen is rounding into shape after a rough start, and they should win easily tonight.
Astros -1.5 (-104)
Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Tips:
ARI – Joe Mantiply/Slade Cecconi
LAD – Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Mantiply will serve as the opener followed by Cecconi who has struggled early. He has a 5.27 ERA/5.05 FIP with low strikeouts and a 1.65 HR/9 rate. He’s earned every bit of the 5-ERA.
The usual idea of an opener is to get a platoon advantage, but the Dodgers hit well from both sides of the plate. The Dodgers are great all around. They have a 129 wRC+ at home this season.
Yamamoto has had a great start to his major league career with a 3.21 ERA/3.26 FIP. He’s actually been better on the road, but I don’t expect that to be an issue tonight. The Diamondbacks have a 91 wRC+ against righties this season and have been below average for a month now.
The Dodgers bullpen behind him is absolutely on fire right now with a 1.50 ERA/2.94 FIP over the past month.
Dodgers -1.5 (-117)
