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3-0 in NBA and 4-0 in MLB last night on Patreon.
MLB tips are on fire right now with a 27-9 record over the past two weeks and 37-24 for the month of May.
We have three NBA tips and two MLB tips tonight on Patreon, two are available below.
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Boston Celtics at Miami Heat Betting Tips:
Boston is only tied at 2-2 in this series because of Boston. If they play their game and don’t make mental mistakes, they will win. It’s really that simple.
Tyler Herro either can’t play or can’t make a shot. Jimmy Butler is clearly hurt and can’t carry the team like they need him to. Lowry is old and hurt. Bam Adebayo absolutely went off in game three and then the Celtics took that personally in game four and made him go away.
Boston’s defense is just incredible and the Heat have no chance to score against them in the half court. The usual rules about road games don’t apply here either as Boston went into Milwaukee and took two games, and has already taken one on the road in this series.
Game one’s loss had to do with rest and injuries, but game three’s loss was a wake-up call. This team knows they are better now. There is blood in the water and this team wants to go to the Finals.
Boston -2
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I have a couple of player props that I will be betting tonight as well, half unit each.
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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:
PHI – Ranger Suarez 4.12 ERA/4.33 FIP
ATL – Charlie Morton 4.95 ERA/4.37 FIP
Two good pitchers on the mound against two good offenses that have only performed average of late. There is risk here because these offenses are capable, but we have to go with what we’ve seen.
Suarez is probably better than he’s been on the season as the projections have his FIP about a half run lower. He’s had some bad luck, but nothing that really jumps off the page. The Braves have been quiet offensively over the last two weeks and they are a big striekout team. The Phillies bullpen does worry me a bit, but they’ve been decent for the season thus far.
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Morton is another pitcher where the rest of the season projections see him performing much better. His walks have been a tick high thus far which makes this a good match-up as Philly isn’t very patient. They have a 102 wRC+ against righties which shouldn’t kill us. The Braves bullpen has been dealing of late.
Winds blowing in at 10MPH help us here as well, if it plays.
Phillies/Braves Under 9 Runs (-112)
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Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels Betting Tips:
TEX – Glenn Otto 5.55 ERA/5.63 FIP
LAA – Reid Detmers 4.15 ERA/4.65 FIP
