May 2nd, 2023 MLB Betting Tips

2-0 last night on Patreon.

W Cubs Moneyline
W Blue Jays -0.5 First 5 Innings

That F5 really paid off as the Jays bullpen could not hold the lead.

The MLB System is rounding into strong form with a 53-40 record over the last three weeks.

I also have five NBA Playoffs tips on Patreon. Also on Patreon, Graeme had a huge weekend with 6.00 and 6.50 wins in Formula 1.

All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals Betting Tips:

CHC – Hayden Wesneski
WSN – Trevor Williams

The Cubs look like a good bet again tonight even though Wesneski is on the mound. He has a rough 5.24 ERA/6.03 FIP on the year, but a lot of that is a really rough second start and he’s been much better over his last three starts with a 2.76 ERA/4.00 FIP. That’s usually not a slam dunk bet unless it’s against an offensive like Washington. They have just a 73 wRC+ against righties this season.

The Cubs have a 110 wRC+ against righties and are playing well right now across the board.

Cubs Moneyline (-138)

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Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:

TOR – Yusei Kikuchi
BOS – Tanner Houck

Last night was a slugfest and I expect this to be more of the same. Kikuchi can’t keep getting away with this and he will blow up soon. He checks all the boxes: 97% left on base, .273 BABIP, and 2 HR/9. Two of those are lucky and the third is a red flag. Boston has a 102 wRC+ against lefties this year and has hit very well at home with a 115 wRC+ this season.

The Jays stayed hot at the plate last night. They have a 110 wRC+ against righties this season and they should be able to chase Houck early. That will be a good thing as the bullpen has a 112 FIP- over the last two weeks.

The System has this one going for 10+ runs.

Jays/Red Sox Over 9.5 (-103)

Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox Betting Tips:

MIN – Joe Ryan
CHW – Michael Kopech

The White Sox are just a complete mess right now and are just 1-9 over their last ten. It’s hard to have any confidence in them in any facet of the game. Kopech has struggled to start, the offense has just an 85 wRC+ against righties, and the bullpen has a 124 FIP- on the season.

Joe Ryan is good. The Twins are good.

Twins -0.5 First 5 Innings (-120)

Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals Betting Tips:

BAL – Tyler Wells
KCR – Ryan Yarbrough

This is one I debated between Orioles Over 4.5 (-128) and Orioles -0.5 F5 (-110). In the end, you always go with the better price.

The Orioles have been amazing against lefties this year with a 122 wRC+ with low strikeouts and high homeruns. A perfect match. Yarbrough will open here and maybe go four innings. He is hittable with a 6.35 ERA/5.68 FIP.

The Royals have just a 51 wRC+ against righties, a 70 wRC+ this season, and a 49 wRC+ (!) at home this year. Wells has been quite good thus far with a 2.79 ERA/3.91 FIP.

Orioles -0.5 First 5 Innings (-110)

Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies Betting Tips:

MIL – Freddy Peralta
COL – Ryan Feltner

The Brewers are the top play of the day today as I continue to think the Rockies are just a bad team. Peralta has big strikeout stuff which should play well in this park. He has a 3.77 ERA/3.18 FIP this season. The Rockies have just a 76 wRC+ against righties and a 68 wRC+ over the last two weeks.

Feltner has been solid, but he’s definitely pitching far above projections right now. He has a 4.68 ERA/3.95, but ZiPS has him at 5.11 ERA/4.77 FIP for the rest of the season. His walks are huge, but his homeruns have been down below career norms. I expect those to come up here.

Brewers -0.5 First 5 Innings (-115)