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MLB betting tips for May 31st, 2024.
1-1 on Wednesday. 100-69 this season.
L Guardians -0.5 First 5 Innings (-105)
W Yankees -0.5 First 5 Innings (-130)
There was nothing worth betting on Thursday. Those slates have been rough this season.
May has been a fantastic month betting baseball with a 46-27 record, +9.93 units. Luck always plays a factor, but it feels like all the work I’ve put into the System over the past few years has paid off. The amount of formulas and stats in the System blows away what I started with a few years back, and that’s all because of our Patreon subscribers.
Forty-six wins this month is great, but you know what would be even better? Fifty. Let’s go for it.
Four bets today.
All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
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St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips:
STL – Miles Mikolas
PHI – Aaron Nola
The Cardinals have really turned this season into something after an awful start, but they are about to face off with one of the big dogs in MLB and I don’t think it goes well for them.
Mikolas has a 5.64 ERA/4.37 FIP with low strikeouts and a 1.37 HR/FB rate. The Phillies have good power and have hit much better at home this season with a 116 wRC+.
Nola is a very good pitcher with a 3.04 ERA/3.75 FIP this season. His match-up won’t be easy as the Cards hit righties well and have been hot of late, but I think he’ll have much better success than Mikolas.
Phillies -0.5 First 5 Innings (-125)
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Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles Betting Tips:
TBR – Aaron Civale
BAL – Albert Suarez
Civale has not had a great season with a 5.72 ERA/4.64 FIP. He’s had some bad luck and home runs have been a real issue for him, but those are unlikely to be fixed against this offense.
Baltimore has been awesome at home with a 116 wRC+. They have a 103 wRC+ against righties, a bit lower than expected. However, they have 54 homers against them, second in baseball, and I think they add to that total here.
Suarez is an opener who probably won’t go more than four innings. Still, he’s been pitching well of late with no runs allowed over his last 9.2 innings.
The Rays have a 94 wRC+ against righties this season and just a 76 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
Orioles First 5 Innings Moneyline (-128)
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Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:
DET – Kenta Maeda
BOS – Tanner Houck
Over his last three starts, Maeda has a 5.54 ERA/4.74 FIP. On the season, he has very low strikeouts and high home runs. Time comes for us all and it appears to have come for him.
The Red Sox offense hasn’t hit great against righties, a 96 wRC+ which is slightly below average, but they do have good power. They’ve also not hit well at home and that’s more a matter of when than if. Tonight should be the when.
I wouldn’t go with an offense of that quality if the pitching match-up weren’t so good. Houck has a 1.90 ERA/2.12 FIP this season. He has great control with a very low walk rate and a very low home run rate, paired with a good groundball rate.
The Tigers offense is about perfectly average which won’t be good enough.
Red Sox -0.5 First 5 Innings (-115)
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Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers Betting Tips:
OAK – JP Sears
ATL – Reynaldo Lopez
Sears is begging for regression with a 3.88 ERA/4.51 FIP/4.88 xFIP. He’s allowing 1.19 HR/9 which is quite low considering his 64.5% flyball rate and 8.9% HR/FB rate. Today is one of those days where it might grow as the Braves have been great at home and hit lefties hard.
I don’t claim to understand what is happening with Reynaldo Lopez, but it’s hard to argue with a 1.75 ERA/2.85 FIP. He has been lucky in certain areas. The Athletics are unlikely to change that luck. They have been one of the worst road offenses with just an 80 wRC+, and they are about average across the board against righties.
Braves -0.5 First 5 Innings (-138)
